Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will Trump resign during his term?
The odds
21%chance▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yes: 22% on Oct 20, 21% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | ▼ 2 | 20¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 482.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… -
Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at President Donald Trump's Iowa rally as he calls on Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress. Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION 'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at… -
Trump Asked Google To Rename Atlantic Ocean ‘Trump Ocean’Oct 22, 2026 at 04:59 AM EDT Oct 22, 2026 at 06:17 AM EDT President Donald Trump has claimed he spoke to Google about renaming a body of water after himself, saying the technology company rejected the idea because oceans border multiple… -
Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy adPresident Trump sparred with a reporter over a controversial campaign ad from Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign featuring the estranged mother of opponent Amy Acton. Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy ad President… -
Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreementMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss the first lady's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreement Marc Beckman, a senior advisor to… -
BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized Ukraine ceasefireFirst lady Melania Trump announces she has personally secured a localized ceasefire in the city of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, allowing humanitarian aid to enter and civilians to evacuate safely. BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized… -
Trump defends Ramaswamy ad despite bipartisan backlashCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump defends… -
Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at rallyPresident Donald Trump mocks Rep. Ilhan Omar's "not to my knowledge" response when asked whether she was related to her former husband, bringing up the viral exchange during his campaign rally in Iowa ... Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at… -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks… -
Trump doubles down on support for Ramaswamy adOhio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy released a controversial attack ad featuring opponent Amy Acton's mother. President Trump repeatedly defended the ad, despite bipartisan backlash. CBS News' Weijia Jiang reports, plus… -
Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in FloridaFox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm blitz on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’ ... Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in Florida Fox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 24, 2026?
38.8%median
38.35%39.05%
Median 38.8%Middle half 38.77% – 38.83%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance▼ 1
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 3
- Margo Martin5%▲ 2
- Maria Bartiromo5%
28 more
- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 3
- Scott Jennings5%▼ 4
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Natalie Harp3%
- Kayleigh McEnany3%▼ 1
- Harrison Fields3%
- Laura Loomer3%▲ 1
- Katie Miller3%▼ 1
- Taylor Rogers2%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Lara Trump2%
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Steven Cheung2%▼ 1
- Monica Crowley2%▼ 2
- Lauren Bis1%▼ 1
- Liz Huston1%
- Alina Habba1%▼ 1
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Kari Lake1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
33%December 31
- October 319%▲ 7
- December 3133%▲ 9
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
27%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly27%▲ 1
- Scott Jennings7%▼ 4
- Kari Lake4%▲ 1
57 more
- Elizabeth Pipko4%▼ 1
- Danielle Alvarez3%
- Margo Martin3%
- Maria Bartiromo3%
- Alina Habba2%
- No new person2%
- Roma Daravi2%
- Laura Loomer2%▲ 1
- Katie Miller2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Harrison Fields2%
- Ben Ferguson2%▲ 1
- Beni Rae Harmony2%
- Jason Miller1%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung1%▼ 1
- Sage Steele1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Liz Huston1%
- Natalie Harp1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Spencer Pratt1%
- Lara Trump1%
- Jayme Franklin1%
- Erika Kirk1%
- Matthew Boyle1%
- Taylor Budowich1%
- Monica Crowley1%
- Kush Desai1%
- Ari Fleischer1%
- Benny Johnson1%
- Matt Walsh1%
- Ben Shapiro1%
- Jack Posobiec1%
- Mike Cernovich1%
- Dan Bongino1%
- Kayleigh McEnany1%
- Taylor Rogers1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Katie Pavlich1%
- Lauren Bis1%
- Pat Adams1%
- Kaelan Dorr1%
- Vanessa Broussard1%
- Cara Castronuova1%
- Mark Levin1%
- Logan Paul1%
- Jake Paul1%
- Eric Daugherty1%
- Erin Elmore Scavino1%
- Tulsi Gabbard1%
- Peter Doocy1%
- Sean Spicer1%
- Karoline Leavitt1%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio1%
- Kat Timpf1%
- Kaylee McGhee White1%
- George Santos1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.