Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance▼ 1
Install
Who will Trump pardon? (Before Jan 21, 2029)
The odds
66%Eric Trump
- Eric Trump66%▼ 2
- Donald Trump Jr.63%
- Pete Hegseth57%▲ 3
- Jared Kushner56%▼ 7
- Donald Trump54%▼ 2
- Barron Trump53%▲ 2
- Scott Bessent45%
- Keonne Rodriguez43%▼ 1
- JD Vance42%▲ 1
- Susie Wiles41%▼ 1
- Todd Blanche41%▲ 1
- Torence Hatch40%▼ 2
40 more
- Ghislaine Maxwell40%▼ 1
- Elon Musk40%▼ 8
- Pam Bondi39%▲ 1
- Bill Hwang39%▼ 1
- Elizabeth Holmes39%▲ 1
- Eric Adams37%
- Prakazrel Michel36%▼ 1
- Steve Bannon35%▼ 2
- Robin Smith34%▼ 3
- Tim Leissner34%▼ 2
- Marco Rubio34%▼ 7
- Sam Bankman-Fried31%
- Jho Low31%
- Julian Assange30%▲ 1
- Larry Householder29%▲ 1
- Sean Combs29%▼ 1
- Edward Snowden29%▼ 2
- Martin Shkreli28%
- Derek Chauvin28%
- Pete Rose27%▲ 1
- Kisean Anderson26%▼ 1
- Bob Menendez24%
- Justin Sun24%▲ 3
- Do Kwon22%▲ 1
- Joe Giudice21%▼ 1
- Tou Thao20%▼ 1
- Joseph Maldonado18%▼ 1
- Matt Borges16%▲ 1
- Leon Stanton14%
- Safaree Samuels14%
- Brian Cole Jr.13%▼ 2
- Daniel Hale13%
- Alex Mashinsky11%
- Jeffery Williams11%
- Sebastian Telfair10%
- Ty Garbin9%
- Jose Muyet9%
- Roger Ver7%
- DeAndre Way6%
- Hunter Biden5%
How the odds have moved
Eric Trump: 65% on Oct 20, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Trump | 66% | ▼ 2 | 65¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 10.3K |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 63% | 62¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 21.0K | |
| Pete Hegseth | 57% | ▲ 3 | 56¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 7.0K |
| Jared Kushner | 56% | ▼ 7 | 56¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 9.3K |
| Donald Trump | 54% | ▼ 2 | 51¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 66.9K |
| Barron Trump | 53% | ▲ 2 | 51¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 70.7K |
| Scott Bessent | 45% | 42¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 4.9K | |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 43% | ▼ 1 | 39¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 2.3K |
| JD Vance | 42% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 4.9K |
| Susie Wiles | 41% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 3.1K |
| Todd Blanche | 41% | ▲ 1 | 39¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 3.9K |
| Torence Hatch | 40% | ▼ 2 | 38¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 9.6K |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 40% | ▼ 1 | 39¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 35.5K |
| Elon Musk | 40% | ▼ 8 | 39¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 7.2K |
| Pam Bondi | 39% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 2.9K |
| Bill Hwang | 39% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 284 |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 39% | ▲ 1 | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 1.4K |
| Eric Adams | 37% | 35¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 3.4K | |
| Prakazrel Michel | 36% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 5.9K |
| Steve Bannon | 35% | ▼ 2 | 33¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 8.6K |
| Robin Smith | 34% | ▼ 3 | 33¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 3.2K |
| Tim Leissner | 34% | ▼ 2 | 30¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 6.7K |
| Marco Rubio | 34% | ▼ 7 | 32¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 5.6K |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 31% | 30¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 17.7K | |
| Jho Low | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 1.3K | |
| Julian Assange | 30% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 4.8K |
| Larry Householder | 29% | ▲ 1 | 26¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 9.4K |
| Sean Combs | 29% | ▼ 1 | 28¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 41.4K |
| Edward Snowden | 29% | ▼ 2 | 28¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 17.0K |
| Martin Shkreli | 28% | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 2.5K | |
| Derek Chauvin | 28% | 24¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 6.8K | |
| Pete Rose | 27% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 4.2K |
| Kisean Anderson | 26% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 1.8K |
| Bob Menendez | 24% | 21¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 4.4K | |
| Justin Sun | 24% | ▲ 3 | 21¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 1.8K |
| Do Kwon | 22% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 1.2K |
| Joe Giudice | 21% | ▼ 1 | 16¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 459 |
| Tou Thao | 20% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 694 |
| Joseph Maldonado | 18% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 887 |
| Matt Borges | 16% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.6K |
| Leon Stanton | 14% | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.6K | |
| Safaree Samuels | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.0K | |
| Brian Cole Jr. | 13% | ▼ 2 | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 6.0K |
| Daniel Hale | 13% | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.2K | |
| Alex Mashinsky | 11% | 8¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 7.6K | |
| Jeffery Williams | 11% | 8¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.3K | |
| Sebastian Telfair | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 400 | |
| Ty Garbin | 9% | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 5.8K | |
| Jose Muyet | 9% | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.4K | |
| Roger Ver | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.36 | 6.1K | |
| DeAndre Way | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | 1.2K | |
| Hunter Biden | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | 2.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Pete Hegseth
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.