María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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Who will Donald Trump talk to in Oct 2026?
The odds
35%Kevin Warsh
- Kevin Warsh35%▼ 4
- Claudia Sheinbaum30%▼ 2
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan30%▼ 2
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy19%▼ 4
- Narendra Modi16%▼ 1
- Sam Altman16%▲ 1
- Dario Amodei15%
- Xi Jinping8%▼ 2
- Gianni Infantino8%
- Masoud Pezeshkian6%
How the odds have moved
Kevin Warsh: 36% on Oct 20, 35% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Benjamin Netanyahu | 99% | $1.01 | 3.0K | |||
| ✓ Mohammed bin Salman | 99% | $1.01 | 4.6K | |||
| ✓ Vladimir Putin | 99% | $1.01 | 19.2K | |||
| ✓ John Thune | 99% | $1.01 | 2.9K | |||
| ✓ Elon Musk | 99% | $1.01 | 5.4K | |||
| ✓ Mark Carney | 98% | $1.02 | 2.0K | |||
| Kevin Warsh | 35% | ▼ 4 | 32¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 2.0K |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 30% | ▼ 2 | 28¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 2.3K |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 30% | ▼ 2 | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 2.0K |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 19% | ▼ 4 | 17¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 9.8K |
| Narendra Modi | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 2.0K |
| Sam Altman | 16% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.6K |
| Dario Amodei | 15% | 12¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 483 | |
| Xi Jinping | 8% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 4.5K |
| Gianni Infantino | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 324 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kevin Warsh, Claudia Sheinbaum
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US President Donald Trump says “will not attack Iran today”US President Donald Trump has ruled out immediate military action against Iran, saying “there will not be a strike today,” Aljazeera news agency reported on Sunday. Earlier, Trump suggested Washington might have to “finish the job” or… -
President Donald Trump Just Threw Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Under the Bus, and Things Could Get Ugly for Wall StreetWhile investors have come to appreciate Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered the peak marginal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21% and spurred record S&P 500 share buybacks, not everything the president has done has benefited… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
WTI drops to near 101.00 as Trump rules out immediate Iranian strikesHowever, fears remain that strikes against Iran could resume following this week’s Israeli elections and next week’s US midterm elections, with Iran reportedly prepared to retaliate by targeting Israel and the UAE. Adding to regional… -
Close contest expected as Lula takes on Bolsonaro’s son in Brazilian electionBrazilians began voting in Sunday’s polarising presidential run-off between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, a contest that will determine whether the US will significantly expand its growing influence in… -
Ukraine's President Zelenskyy says US-Ukraine-Russia meeting to take place in NovemberUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow would take place in November, Reuters reported on Sunday. Territory issue only for heads of state, technical talks cover other… -
Brazil votes in a tense Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff with US influence over Latin America at stakePolls ahead of the vote showed the two candidates, who need more than 50% of the vote to become Brazil’s next leader in January, in a neck-and-neck race. The election pits the left-of-center veteran politician Lula against Bolsonaro, an… -
How the death of two CIA agents in northern Mexico led to a treason caseMEXICO CITY — The deaths of two CIA agents in April following an operation to dismantle a drug lab in northern Mexico have led to the unusual federal charge of “treason” against a former Chihuahua state attorney general. He is also accused… -
Yemen's Houthis say they will keep attacking Saudi Arabia's King Khalid airportYemen's Houthis said on Sunday that they will keep attacking Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, Reuters reported. This move came hours after the kingdom announced that flights had resumed despite repeated attacks by Houthis… -
Claudia Sheinbaum has a story to tell — and we need to listenSimone de Beauvoir argued in her 1949 book “The Second Sex” that “humanity is male and man defines woman not in herself but as relative to him; she is not regarded as an autonomous being.” Still, the ... Claudia Sheinbaum has a story to… -
Report Says US Presses Mexico on Joint RaidsMEXICO · US RELATIONS · SECURITY The New York Times reports that Washington wants US security personnel to accompany operations against drug cartels inside Mexico, something Mexico’s president says its laws do not allow. The Trump…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions