How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 21, 2029 · $174 today · $1.8K traded · $1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

2.26median
015
Median 2.26

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.97 on Oct 20, 2.26 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 1 71% ▼ 1 69¢ 73¢ $1.37 535
At least 2 54% ▼ 1 52¢ 56¢ $1.79 1.2K
At least 3 39% 36¢ 41¢ $2.44 382
At least 4 14% 12¢ 17¢ $5.88 3.7K
At least 5 11% ▲ 1 9¢ 13¢ $7.69 433
At least 10 6% ▲ 1 3¢ 8¢ $12.50 307

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment

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  • Impeachment is back on the menuPOLITICO · 32 h agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/21/2026 01:40 PM EDT Impeachment dominated much of Donald Trump’s first presidency. Voters think it should come back for a sequel. Half of Americans…
  • Adam Schiff says Democrats should put 'overriding emphasis' on costs, not impeachmentNBC News · 6 h agoIn an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) says Democratic oversight should focus on bringing down costs and corruption, that could potentially lead to impeachment. Kornacki: Where Democrats see openings for…
  • Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protestsCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 17, 2025 / 8:52 AM EDT / CBS News Johannesburg — Large crowds gathered Friday in Madagascar's capital city to watch the leader of the African island nation's recent military coup be sworn in as its new president. Col. Michael…
  • Impeach Trump Y/N?Slate Magazine · 37 h agoAdvertisement Listen & Subscribe Choose your preferred player: Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn Pocket Casts RSS Feed For questions about subscriptions or your Slate Plus feed, check our FAQ. Please enable javascript to get your Slate Plus…
  • Schiff: Dem Oversight Could Led to Trump’s ImpeachmentBreitbart · 3 h agoSunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said if Democrats win back control of Congress, an impeachment of President Donald Trump is possible. The post Schiff: Dem Oversight Could Led to Trump’s Impeachment appeared first…
  • Trump Impeachment ‘Theater’ Loses Steam with LeftPolitical Wire · 30 h agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Progressive House members and candidates are taking a stark turn away from what they describe as ‘performative’ efforts to impeach President Trump,” Axios reports. “This is a drastic shift in tone…
  • Ilhan Omar hires Biden’s former personal lawyer, Trump impeachment attorney amid immigration probeMEAWW News · 17 h agoWASHINGTON, DC: Democratic Rep Ilhan Omar (D-Minn) has hired two prominent Washington lawyers with ties to former President Joe Biden and the congressional investigations into President Donald Trump as federal authorities examine her…
  • Schiff warns Democrats: costs first, impeachment laterenmnews.com · 6 h agoAdam Schiff says Democrats need to keep their eyes on household costs, not on the fight over impeachment. In a political moment still shaped by inflation, rent, groceries and the price of everyday life, Schiff argued that voters are likely…
  • New Democratic voices cool on Trump impeachment pushenmnews.com · 2 days agoFor years, impeachment was one of the loudest weapons in the Democratic arsenal against Donald Trump. Now, a new crop of progressives is sounding far less eager to turn it into a reflex. That shift is showing up in public comments from…
  • I.N.D.I.A bloc plans mock Parliament, CEC impeachmentThe Sunday Guardian · 23 h agoWith the Congress led INDIA bloc set to hold a massive public meeting titled ‘Vote Bachao, Desh Bachao’ on November 1 over alleged vote chori and its demand for the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and scrapping of the…
  • Trump will be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. Then what?Lucianne · 28 h agoI’m about to say things you don’t want to hear. But I’m a prognosticator, not a cheerleader (even though I voted for Trump three times). So here goes. The Democrats will retake the House of... Trump will be impeached by the House and…
  • INDIA bloc to hold ‘public impeachment’ of CEC on Oct 30MillenniumPost · 20 h agoLeaders of the opposition INDIA Bloc will hold a “public impeachment” of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar on October 30 and announce a public verdict against him. The “mock Parliament” would be held at Hotel Ashok, where all…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions