Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?
The odds
88%
- 88%
- 14%
- 23%
- 42%
- 52%
- 31%
How the odds have moved
: 87% on Oct 20, 88% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 87¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 66.0K | ||
| 1 | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | 18.6K | |
| 2 | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | 23.1K | |
| 4 | 2% | 0¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 7.8K | |
| 5 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | 6.2K | |
| 3 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 14.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Cabinet
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Cheryl Hines, Rachel Campos-Duffy spill on private Cabinet wives club navigating life in WashingtonSpouses of Trump administration Cabinet members say they lean on one another as they navigate life in Washington, offering a behind-the-scenes look at their friendships on the latest episode of Fox News' "the Girls" podcast. On Thursday's… -
Westonka Public Schools develop AI cabinet to vet advancements in techCBS News Westonka Public Schools develop AI cabinet to vet advancements in tech No rain in sight for Minnesota, but several days in the 70s on the way How often to medical misdiagnoses occur? St. Paul Public Schools considers cutting… -
Cabinet split widens as minister refuses to back Shabana Mahmood’s immigration plansMiatta Fahnbulleh avoids explicitly expressing support for 15-year path to permanent residency for foreign workers A cabinet split over Shabana Mahmood’s immigration policy has deepened after the energy secretary refused to say she backed… -
Trump cabinet official eyeing ‘next chapter’ after he ‘broke the world’: GOP strategistDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth may already be contemplating his next political move as a longtime Republican strategist predicts he could soon face President Donald Trump’s wrath over the monthlong Iran conflict. Mark McKinnon raised… -
Cabinet regulates re-obtaining combatant statusThe Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved amendments to several government resolutions, addressing an issue faced by defenders who had previously been granted "combatant" status, either in prior years or for other service, and who… -
Romanian lawmakers back Cabinet of independent Luca Niculescu seeking to end a months-long crisisThe Washington Post Romanian lawmakers have backed a Cabinet proposed by independent Luca Niculescu BUCHAREST, Romania — Romanian lawmakers voted Tuesday to back a Cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Luca Niculescu , an independent who… -
Panama Cabinet Moves US$186.8M in BudgetPANAMA · 2027 BUDGET Panama kept its 2027 budget at US$35.1 billion but moved US$186.83 million between lines. The Assembly now takes up the revised bill. The Panama 2027 budget stays at US$35,111.75 million after President Mulino’s… -
Dems headed for 'all-out brawl' that 'could get ugly' with Trump Cabinet member: reportDemocrats are planning to go after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if they win control of Congress in the midterms, with Politico predicting an “all-out brawl.” Citing people with direct knowledge of Democrats’ plans who were granted… -
Sherrill pulls cabinet member from senate confirmationLabor Commissioner-designate was supposed to be confirmed today By David Wildstein, October 22 2026 6:41 pm Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s nominee for Commissioner of Labor was sitting on the floor of the State Senate today expecting to witness a… -
Peru's President Fujimori presents new cabinet membersThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper Peru's President Keiko Fujimori presents Elmer âÂÂCuba as Peru's new Economy and Finance Minister, in Lima, Peru, July 28, 2026. REUTERS/Angela Ponce - Santa Fe teen advances on âThe Voice,â… -
Cabinet approves state budget draftThe Cabinet on Wednesday approved a draft law adopting Qatar’s general budget for fiscal year 2027 and decided to refer it to the Shura Council for consideration. The decision was taken at the Cabinet’s weekly meeting, which was chaired by… -
Putin overhauls Russian cabinet with 5 major appointmentsRussian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees appointing five new Cabinet members after the State Duma, the parliament's lower house, approved their nominations the previous day, according to the Kremlin. Under the decrees, Anton…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.