Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?
The odds
5.34median
030
Median 5.34
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.13 on Oct 19, 5.34 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5 | 53% | ▲ 23 | 12¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 1.3K |
| At least 10 | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 669 | |
| At least 15 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| At least 20 | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | |
| At least 25 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 764 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Truths
Search ›-
Sean Hannity: El-Sayed knows the truth about him is uglyFox News Sean Hannity: El-Sayed knows the truth about him is ugly Fox News host Sean Hannity discusses the Michigan Senate race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed on 'Hannity.' Fox News host Sean Hannity discusses the Michigan Senate… -
Why Netflix Fired Dan Lin (and the Truth About His Tension With Greta Gerwig Over ‘Narnia’)Inside the firing of Netflix film chief Dan Lin (and what really happened with "Narnia" director Greta Gerwig). Why Netflix Fired Dan Lin (and the Truth About His Tension With Greta Gerwig Over ‘Narnia’) “Everyone is collateral damage.” -
Unexpected truth about diet soda vs. water revealed in new studyMaybe that fridge cigarette isn’t so toxic after all. Diet soda has long promised a hit of sweetness without the sugar overload that can fuel weight gain. But sobering research has linked artificial sweeteners to a higher risk of heart… -
Delusional Truth Social rant proves Trump has finally lost the plotU.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, U.S., en route to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, August 21, 2026. Defending Karl Rove isn't something that comes… -
CNN Data Guru Humiliates Vance With Embarrassing TruthThe GOP believes the vice president could help its dire midterm prospects. CNN’s Harry Enten has warned that JD Vance is of little use to Republicans on the midterm campaign trail because of how deeply unpopular he is. Speaking on Monday’s… - Trump’s Truth Social Plunges to All-Time Low as Users FleeTrump’s tiny social media platform is facing a user exodus. Donald Trump’s social media company has hit a new low on the stock market. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social, fell more than 7.5 percent on…
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In Covid as in Climate Change: Truth Will OutAnthony Fauci has been caught red-handed twisting science during Covid to serve an authoritarian agenda. A similar reckoning is coming for the 'scientists' who preach climate catastrophe, says Dr Tilak Doshi. Fauci’s private record versus… -
Trump rants about Democrats' 'luxury cars' and rages at 'trash island' in unhinged Truth Social spreeDonald Trump lashed out at Democrats for 'driving luxury cars,' and branded the golf course he wants to renovate 'trash island' in irate posts amid his latest Truth Social spree The president remained awake until the early hours of Tuesday… -
Scandal-Hit Trump Goon Admits Secret Truth About His JobAnd he used to employ bar exam failure Katie Zacharia as “general counsel.” A high-profile “special envoy” for Donald Trump has admitted to the Daily Beast that his role secretly ended months ago. Ric Grenell, 60, is no longer the U.S… -
Morning Minute: There's Something to Be Said for Truth in AdvertisingReporter Reveals What He's Been Told About Michigan Polling in Latest Concerning Sign for El-Sayed Grab the Popcorn: Now There's a Report Omar's Sister Talked to the Feds Omar herself has not been seen since the raid on her home on Oct… - Gov. Hochul is hiding the truth about ACS and murdered childrenWhat did the Administration for Children’s Services know about Francis Cabello, the mentally ill mother who murdered her 5-year-old daughter last week? Because Gov. Hochul refuses to hold ACS accountable, the public may never find out why…
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The Truth About The Gas Tax Nobody Voted ForCalifornia is now offering rebates of up to $120,000 on electric trucks, with more than $1 billion up for grabs through 2030. The program’s website preemptively assures critics that these massive green subsidies are “not funded by customer…
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All trump administration ›Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 24, 2026?
38.8%median
38.35%39.05%
Median 38.8%Middle half 38.77% – 38.83%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 3
- Margo Martin5%▲ 2
- Maria Bartiromo5%
28 more
- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 3
- Scott Jennings5%▼ 4
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Natalie Harp3%
- Kayleigh McEnany3%▼ 1
- Laura Loomer3%▲ 1
- Harrison Fields3%
- Katie Miller3%▼ 1
- Taylor Rogers2%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Lara Trump2%
- Monica Crowley2%▼ 2
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Steven Cheung2%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%▼ 1
- Liz Huston1%
- Alina Habba1%▼ 1
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Kari Lake1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
33%December 31
- October 319%▲ 7
- December 3133%▲ 9
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
27%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly27%▲ 1
- Scott Jennings7%▼ 4
- Kari Lake4%▲ 1
57 more
- Elizabeth Pipko4%▼ 1
- Danielle Alvarez3%
- Margo Martin3%
- Maria Bartiromo3%
- Alina Habba2%
- No new person2%
- Roma Daravi2%
- Laura Loomer2%▲ 1
- Katie Miller2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Harrison Fields2%
- Ben Ferguson2%▲ 1
- Beni Rae Harmony2%
- Jason Miller1%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung1%▼ 1
- Sage Steele1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Liz Huston1%
- Natalie Harp1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Spencer Pratt1%
- Lara Trump1%
- Jayme Franklin1%
- Erika Kirk1%
- Matthew Boyle1%
- Taylor Budowich1%
- Monica Crowley1%
- Kush Desai1%
- Ari Fleischer1%
- Benny Johnson1%
- Matt Walsh1%
- Ben Shapiro1%
- Jack Posobiec1%
- Mike Cernovich1%
- Dan Bongino1%
- Kayleigh McEnany1%
- Taylor Rogers1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Katie Pavlich1%
- Lauren Bis1%
- Pat Adams1%
- Kaelan Dorr1%
- Vanessa Broussard1%
- Cara Castronuova1%
- Mark Levin1%
- Logan Paul1%
- Jake Paul1%
- Eric Daugherty1%
- Erin Elmore Scavino1%
- Tulsi Gabbard1%
- Peter Doocy1%
- Sean Spicer1%
- Karoline Leavitt1%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio1%
- Kat Timpf1%
- Kaylee McGhee White1%
- George Santos1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.