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Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
The odds
14%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 14% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 69.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Cuba
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Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba and Rubio after question from crowdPresident Donald Trump teases U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran, and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday in Fort Myers, Florida ... Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba… -
Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIAPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIA President Donald Trump… -
AP says U.S. secretly built "Cuban Twitter" called ZunZuneo to thwart Cuba censorship, but was it legal?Updated on: April 3, 2014 / 10:58 AM EDT / CBS/AP WASHINGTON -- In July 2010, Joe McSpedon, a U.S. government official, flew to Barcelona to put the final touches on a secret plan to build a social media project aimed at undermining Cuba's… -
Rubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA: "Now is the time"October 24, 2026 / 11:49 AM EDT / CBS News U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with the CIA, the latest ploy in the growing efforts from the Trump administration to remove Cuba's communist… -
Rubio tells Cubans ‘now is the time’ to act to see political changeUS secretary of state makes comments after Trump tells US rally warships could intervene on return from Iran Marco Rubio urged Cubans seeking political change in their country to act, saying “now is the time” moments after Donald Trump… -
Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run islandPresident Donald Trump teases that U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, in Fort Myers, Florida. Secretary of… -
Trump Threatens Cuba ‘Stopover’ After IranWashington is doubling down on threats to topple the Cuban government after imposing a crippling energy blockade on the island nation earlier this year. US President Donald Trump renewed his threat to topple Cuba’s government while… -
Cuban FM denounces Trump’s new military threatCuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez on Friday denounced a new threat of military intervention against the Caribbean nation by US President Donald Trump. In a post on X, Rodriguez rejected “any threat regarding US ambitions toward Cuba”… -
Trump Floats Ships Off Cuba, Havana RejectsThis story is part of our coverage of the cuba news. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide. Latest: Second US Aid Flight Lands in Matanzas, Cuba Trump told the rally the United States would “take care of Cuba on our way back… -
Rubio urges Cubans seeking change to partner with CIA as Trump vows to 'take care of Cuba'US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday called on people seeking change in Cuba to work with the CIA, as President Donald Trump said Washington would turn to the island after dealing with Iran and send its top diplomat to close a deal… -
Trump Says US Will 'Take Care Of Cuba' After IranAuthored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times, President Donald Trump hinted at a new U.S. foreign intervention in Cuba, potentially with military force, as he addressed supporters at a midterm campaign rally in Florida on Oct. 23. He made… -
Trump and Rubio escalate rhetoric on possible Cuba actionSecretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump made separate comments regarding Cuba on Friday, Oct. 23, that threaten to escalate tensions between the U.S. and it's Caribbean neighbor.The comments suggested that Cubans take…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions