Who will announce a new tour this year? (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Music Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $5 today · $27.5K traded · $12.7K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

83%Adele

Adele83%
Drake75%
Taylor Swift69%▲ 40
Nicki Minaj69%
Travis Scott67%
Beyoncé66%
Eminem43%
Bad Bunny24%
Doja Cat24%▼ 45
Dua Lipa21%
Lady Gaga17%
Coldplay17%

7 more

Frank Ocean15%
Justin Bieber15%▲ 1
Rihanna6%
The Weeknd6%
Sabrina Carpenter6%
SZA4%
Kendrick Lamar2%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

Adele: 83% on Oct 21, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Adele	83%		5¢	83¢	$1.20	1.9K
Drake	75%		4¢	75¢	$1.33	8.4K
Taylor Swift	69%	▲ 40	9¢	68¢	$1.47	3.7K
Nicki Minaj	69%		2¢	61¢	$1.64	2.7K
Travis Scott	67%		4¢	67¢	$1.49	783
Beyoncé	66%		4¢	63¢	$1.59	3.4K
Eminem	43%		2¢	45¢	$2.22	538
Bad Bunny	24%		4¢	68¢	$1.47	8.5K
Doja Cat	24%	▼ 45	46¢	64¢	$1.56	7.9K
Dua Lipa	21%		15¢	98¢	$1.02	2.1K
Lady Gaga	17%		22¢	94¢	$1.06	2.0K
Coldplay	17%		38¢	58¢	$1.72	6.8K
Frank Ocean	15%		2¢	98¢	$1.02	475
Justin Bieber	15%	▲ 1	12¢	18¢	$5.56	17.0K
Rihanna	6%		2¢	80¢	$1.25	9.7K
The Weeknd	6%		23¢	74¢	$1.35	6.7K
Sabrina Carpenter	6%		5¢	16¢	$6.25	45.1K
SZA	4%		2¢	79¢	$1.27	853
Kendrick Lamar	2%	▼ 3	1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Taylor Swift

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Culture › Music

Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Headliner(s) (2027)

73%JAY-Z

JAY-Z73%▼ 17
Beyoncé27%▲ 13
Miley Cyrus17%▲ 5

54 more

Harry Styles8%▲ 4
Taylor Swift5%
Lady Gaga4%▲ 2
Justin Bieber4%
Rihanna4%
Tate McRae4%▲ 2
Kanye West / Ye4%
Lil Wayne3%
Ariana Grande3%
Morgan Wallen2%▲ 1
Stevie Wonder2%▲ 1
Oasis2%
Adele2%
AC/DC2%
BTS2%
Imagine Dragons2%
Guns N' Roses2%
Eagles2%
Katy Perry2%
Linkin Park2%
SZA2%
Travis Scott2%
Backstreet Boys2%
Elton John2%
Pink2%
Pearl Jam2%
Chris Brown2%
Christina Aguilera2%
Doja Cat2%
Megan Thee Stallion2%
Ice Spice2%
Cynthia Erivo2%
Tyler, The Creator2%
Drake2%
Billie Eilish2%
Foo Fighters2%
Lil Baby2%
Chappell Roan2%
Post Malone2%
Dua Lipa2%
Metallica2%
Sabrina Carpenter2%
Karol G2%
Green Day2%
Coldplay2%
Cardi B2%
Mariah Carey2%
BLACKPINK2%
Outkast2%
T-Pain2%
Ella Langley2%
Sexyy Red1%
Ed Sheeran1%
Madonna1%

Culture › Music

Taylor Swift Top 10 Spots — Billboard Hot 100 (Oct 31, 2026)

99%Exactly 1 song

Exactly 1 song99%▲ 2
Exactly 0 songs<1%
Exactly 2 songs<1%

8 more

Exactly 3 songs<1%
Exactly 4 songs<1%
Exactly 5 songs<1%
Exactly 6 songs<1%
Exactly 7 songs<1%
Exactly 8 songs<1%
Exactly 9 songs<1%
Exactly 10 songs<1%

Culture › Music

Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31

70%Housewife - Tate McRae

Housewife - Tate McRae70%▲ 7
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley26%▲ 14
Patient Zero - Taylor Swift<1%▼ 1

4 more

expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan<1%▼ 1
Boston - Stella Lefty<1%
Been By Now - Morgan Wallen<1%
Solar Eclipse - Drake & Don Toliver<1%

Culture › Music

#1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?

73%Choosin' Texas

Choosin' Texas73%▲ 36
Patient Zero15%▲ 13
Housewife14%▼ 38

17 more

Boston<1%
Been By Now<1%
Solar Eclipse<1%
hate that i made you love me<1%
stupid song<1%
Nicole Kidman<1%
BbY WOW<1%
Quebec<1%
I Just Might<1%
Babydoll<1%
Risk It All<1%
BE HER<1%
LAST THING YOU NEED<1%
Midnight Sun<1%
LOVING LIFE AGAIN<1%
Earrings<1%
Expectations<1%▼ 3

Culture › Music

Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album · Features

100%Rauw Alejandro

Rauw Alejandro100%
SZA100%
PinkPantheress100%

127 more

Cardi B100%
Dua Lipa75%▲ 10
Young Thug73%
Don Toliver73%▼ 4
J Balvin71%
Kodak Black70%▼ 3
Kali Uchis65%▼ 1
21 Savage63%▲ 5
Lana Del Rey54%▼ 20
Bad Bunny47%
Ella Langley43%▼ 22
Anuel AA41%▲ 9
KAROL G39%▲ 10
Lil Uzi Vert39%▲ 3
Doechii38%▲ 3
Charli xcx37%▲ 4
Lil Wayne36%▼ 4
Megan Thee Stallion36%▲ 1
The Weeknd34%▼ 3
Ice Spice34%▲ 8
T-Pain34%▲ 1
Tyler, The Creator33%▼ 5
Eminem33%▼ 5
Bruno Mars33%▼ 4
Lil Baby28%
Drake28%▼ 1
Sexyy Red28%▼ 1
Tyla27%▼ 4
Post Malone27%
ROSALÍA27%▼ 6
JAY-Z27%▼ 3
Shaboozey25%▼ 4
Justin Bieber24%
Ozuna24%▼ 3
Billie Eilish22%▼ 3
Nicki Minaj22%▲ 1
Kendrick Lamar21%▼ 3
Jason Derulo20%▲ 3
Kanye West / Ye18%▼ 5
Leon Thomas18%▲ 8
Zach Bryan18%▼ 7
Lil Yachty18%▲ 3
The Marías18%▼ 2
Chris Brown17%▲ 11
Offset17%▼ 7
Doja Cat17%▼ 12
Lil Nas X17%▼ 3
Sabrina Carpenter16%▼ 2
Logic16%▼ 2
Miley Cyrus16%▼ 2
Kid Cudi15%▼ 1
2 Chainz15%▲ 3
Khalid14%▼ 3
Quavo14%▲ 1
Luke Combs14%▼ 14
Swae Lee14%▼ 8
The Kid LAROI14%▼ 9
Bryson Tiller14%▼ 2
mgk14%▼ 1
Lola Young14%▲ 8

Culture › Music

Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?

100%Choosin' Texas

Choosin' Texas100%▲ 1
Been By Now100%▲ 1
Boston99%▲ 19

15 more

Patient Zero98%▲ 11
stupid song98%
Nicole Kidman95%▼ 2
BbY WOW87%▲ 2
hate that i made you love me48%▲ 5
I Just Might20%▲ 18
Earrings19%
Babydoll14%▼ 35
Risk It All12%▲ 6
Quebec6%
Midnight Sun6%
Solar Eclipse1%
BE HER1%▼ 12
LAST THING YOU NEED1%▼ 4
LOVING LIFE AGAIN1%▼ 5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onPitchfork, Billboard, Variety

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$27.5K (130,932 contracts)

Today$5

This week$27.5K

At stake$12.7K

In the news32 headlines today, 657 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Rihanna announces a new tour before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.