Target transactions change in Q3 2026

Kalshi Finance › Companies Closes Jul 29, 2027 · $300 today · $16.4K traded · $13.4K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

4.53%median
-2.5%11.5%
Median 4.53%Middle half 3.03% – 5.11%

How the odds have moved

Median: 3.3% on Oct 27, 4.53% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Above 0% 99% 98¢ 99¢ $1.01 10.2K
Above 2.5% 85% ▲ 1 82¢ 88¢ $1.14 2.0K
Above 3% 76% ▲ 19 71¢ 80¢ $1.25 1.9K
Above 3.5% 68% ▲ 22 65¢ 70¢ $1.43 1.5K
Above 4% 52% ▼ 11 47¢ 54¢ $1.85 1.5K
Above 4.5% 52% ▲ 28 49¢ 56¢ $1.79 1.8K
Above 5% 27% ▼ 1 24¢ 29¢ $3.45 1.4K
Above 5.5% 20% ▼ 1 19¢ 20¢ $5.00 190
Above 6% 13% 12¢ 13¢ $7.69
Above 6.5% 11% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09
Above 9% 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Target

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  • Hackers target FEC system, disrupting campaign finance disclosuresNBC News · 17 h agoThe Federal Election Commission's website has been targeted by a hacker or hackers, according to an email seen by Reuters, disrupting the agency's electronic filings system a week before the midterm elections. In a statement, the FEC said…
  • Anthropic Warns Staff Visas Could Be ‘Targeted’ Under TrumpNewsweek · 9 h agoOct 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT Oct 28, 2026 at 12:32 PM EDT Anthropic, one of the most prominent artificial intelligence companies in the United States, is warning that its employees could face targeted immigration or visa action because of…
  • UK brings forward defense spending target, pledging billions to UkraineCNBC · 4 h agoThe U.K. has set out a target date for defense spending to rise to 3% of GDP, as the finance minister announced billions in aid for Ukraine in a "clear message to Moscow". John Healey on Wednesday set a target date of 2030 for the 3%…
  • US solar energy provider targets Nigeria expansionsemafor.com · 2 days agoThe expansion will serve more than 30,000 people in the oil-rich but electricity-poor Niger Delta region. US solar energy provider targets Nigeria expansion A US solar energy provider plans to grow its Africa operations by adding…
  • UFC Reportedly Targeting Highly-Anticipated Sean Strickland Title Defense in 2027MMA Knockout On SI · 7 h agoIn a bit of a relief, MMAJunkie's Mike Bohn reported Tuesday night that the UFC plans to bring Strickland back as part of its Q1 schedule for the first title defense of his second stint as middleweight champion in a rematch against…
  • Trump targets Texas and Mississippi as midterm elections approachFox Business · 27 h agoMidterm election campaigns intensify as President Donald Trump targets voters in Mississippi and Texas with rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock. Lauren Simonetti details the new Fox Power Rankings, which show Democrats holding a narrow…
  • Dem candidate Amy Acton targeted in Ramaswamy ad speaks to OutFrontcnn.com · 18 h agoOhio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton addressed the painful family history brought into her campaign during an interview with CNN's Lauren Fox. Acton shared that she is processing new details about her estranged mother while condemning…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions