Largest Company end of December 2026?
60%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA60%▲ 2
- Apple38%▼ 1
- Alphabet1%
5 more
- Microsoft<1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Install
How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? (Before 2027)
The odds
50%Above 500000 in a single quarter
250,0002.50M
How the odds have moved
Above 500000 in a single quarter: 48% on Oct 20, 50% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500000 in a single quarter | 50% | ▲ 1 | 48¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 103.2K |
| Above 750000 in a single quarter | 3% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 6.7K | |
| Above 1000000 in a single quarter | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.7K |
| Above 1500000 in a single quarter | 2% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 866 | ||
| Above 2000000 in a single quarter | 2% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla
Search ›-
Exclusive / SpaceX-Tesla merger could face antitrust scrutinyCould the Tesla-SpaceX merger that Elon Musk floated this week pose antitrust problems? One former Justice Department official told Semafor that the risks are real. Antitrust regulators view such “vertical” mergers as pro-competition, the… -
With earnings in rearview mirror, SpaceX-Tesla merger chatter takes center stageElon Musk told Tesla shareholders on Wednesday that, when it comes to a potential merger with SpaceX, he’d already “said everything that should be said.” Tesla’s head of investor relations told analysts before opening the call to their… -
'Nothing short of a miracle;' 2 adults, 2 kids survive Tesla cliff plunge at Devil's SlideUpdated on: January 2, 2023 / 8:17 PM PST / CBS San Francisco PACIFICA (CBS SF) – A Tesla drove off a cliff near Devil's Slide Monday morning, with two adults and two children surviving the plunge. UPDATE: Tesla driver arrested for… -
Tesla is prepping a Cybercab onslaughtBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Tesla says it is preparing to launch its shiny gold Cybercab in new markets outside its home of Austin, Texas, in a bid to “literally take over every part of terrestrial… -
Tesla cuts capex forecast to about $20 BillionTesla faces intense market scrutiny as Nancy Tengler and Ross Gerber join Liz Claman to debate the automaker's autonomous future. Tengler analyzes the Optimus robot delivery timeline, while Gerber raises safety concerns about Cybercab… -
SpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out OfElon Musk recused himself from the SpaceX-Tesla merger talks. His company’s SEC filing suggests that doesn’t mean much. SpaceX’s October 22 10-Q disclosed that any potential combination with Tesla “would be subject to further approval by… -
Sure, let’s smoosh SpaceX and Tesla together, who caresYes, of course there are pay package incentives in play for Musk. But that’s not all. Oh sure, SpaceX’s credit risk is pretty high because it’s about to borrow another $40 billion to spend on Nvidia chips, but who cares about that? SpaceX… -
The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom NarayanTom Narayan, lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX, takeaways from Tesla in Q3 and more. The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom Narayan -
SpaceX-Tesla-merger-Ray WangAnalyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens CNBC Analyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens -
SpaceX now says potential blockbuster Tesla merger would need Elon Musk’s approvalSpaceX said Thursday its potential merger with Tesla will require controlling investor Elon Musk’s approval, even though the entrepreneur has recused himself from talks between his two companies because of conflicts of interest. Musk, the… -
Former Tesla board member on obstacles facing potential SpaceX mergerSteve Westly, founder and managing partner of The Westly Group and a former Tesla board member, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the obstacles facing potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, his take on Tesla's Q3 earnings, and more. Former… -
Related markets
All companies ›Largest Company end of October 2026?
64%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA64%▲ 3
- Apple35%▼ 3
- Alphabet<1%
6 more
- Microsoft<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Broadcom<1%
- Amazon<1%
- SpaceX<1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 1
- November 3099%▲ 1
- December 3199%▲ 14
Fast food credit card spend array index in October 2026
93.0median
78110
Median 93.0Middle half 91.1 – 94.7
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- December 31>99%
Abercrombie & Fitch Credit Card Spend in October (October 2026)
104.9median
81113
Median 104.9Middle half 101.5 – 107.6
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.