Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
22%chance▼ 2
Install
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? (Before 2027)
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | 1.5M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
Search ›-
‘Tariff Man’ finally found tariffs he doesn’t likePresident Donald Trump loves tariffs so much that during his first term, he nicknamed himself “Tariff Man.” Trump tripled down on tariffs during his second term, lobbing them on friends and enemies alike, in an attempt to revive American… -
Trump Accused of Unlawfully Invoking 1930s Law for Canada TariffsOct 21, 2026 at 05:14 AM EDT A New Jersey food importer has accused President Donald Trump of unlawfully invoking a rarely used 1930s trade law to impose 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian goods. Gellert Global Group filed a lawsuit on… -
Voters wanted Trump I’s economy. They got tariff chaosWashington Examiner In October 2018, right before the midterm elections of President Donald Trump’s first term, the jobless rate in the United States held at 3.7%, the lowest level since 1969. The number of available job openings that… -
DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics biteCNBC DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics bite -
Trump sued over 50% tariffs on Canada in latest trade challengeA new lawsuit filed Tuesday challenges President Donald Trump's invocation of a Depression-era law to impose 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods. Trump in July used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to slap those steep tariffs on… -
US food importer sues Trump administration over 50% tariffs on Canadian goodsKaran Ramchandani, managing director for capital ,markets at Post Oak Group, breaks down how U.S.-Canada tariffs and USMCA uncertainty disrupt auto, steel, and lumber sectors, freeze long-term capital and push costs to consumers and small… -
What Do Donald Trump’s Tariffs Mean For Michigan? Plus, The Israeli ElectionIn the decades following the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the U.S. and Canada built strong economic ties across their border. That robust partnership — which accounts for billions of dollars of goods — made Canada a… -
Russia waiver leaves tariff leverage intactDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy. You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Ari Hawkins President Donald Trump’s decision… -
The U.S. badly needs new tariff lawsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Right now, the legal… -
Canadian dairy tariffs | US cheese importer sues Trump over Canadian dairy tariffsUS Cheese Importer Sues Trump Over Canadian Dairy Tariffs https://en.edairynews.com/ Legal challenge against Section 338 tariffs warns that executive trade duties on Canadian dairy threaten $40 million in annual importer costs. A major… -
Consumer headlines: Lawsuit over Canadian tariffsnews8000.com News 8+ 24/7 Live Stream Proposed Emplify Health Viroqua Clinic Seniors Facing Tough Medicare Plan Decisions Midterm Races Heating Up Nationwide Miller Lite offers rebate for beer bought during Game 1 of World Series Former… -
EU tariffs aimed at China hitting Ukraine, steel boss saysThe boss of one of Ukraine's biggest steel companies has called on the European Union to drop import restrictions on products made from the country, arguing it has been "bundled together" in measures aimed a curbing cheap imports from the…
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All trump administration ›Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Next Press Secretary?
25%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly25%▲ 7
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- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 3
28 more
- Kayleigh McEnany5%▲ 1
- Maria Bartiromo5%
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- Taylor Rogers2%
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- Liz Huston1%
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- Kush Desai1%
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- Ari Fleischer1%
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Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
84%Vladimir Putin
- Vladimir Putin84%▼ 1
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- Kim Jong Un25%▲ 5
11 more
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- Changpeng Zhao7%
- King Mohammed VI6%
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How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/18-10/24)
6.59median
114
Median 6.59Middle half 6.29 – 6.89
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 47
- November 30>99%▲ 16
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.