Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%chance▼ 1
Install
Will Trump embargo a new country?
The odds
7%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 7% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 24.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Trump Asked Google To Rename Atlantic Ocean ‘Trump Ocean’Oct 22, 2026 at 04:59 AM EDT Oct 22, 2026 at 06:17 AM EDT President Donald Trump has claimed he spoke to Google about renaming a body of water after himself, saying the technology company rejected the idea because oceans border multiple… -
Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at President Donald Trump's Iowa rally as he calls on Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress. Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION 'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at… -
Could Ukraine win sans Trump?From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. By GREGORY SVIRNOVSKIY and GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING 10/22/2026 04:01 PM EDT President Donald Trump's tiff with Kyiv means President Volodymyr… -
Trump aide Corey Lewandowski "put in a box" by Trump and ordered to narrow focus to New HampshireUpdated on: October 14, 2024 / 7:23 PM EDT / CBS News As former President Donald Trump entered his final weeks of campaigning, the uneasy relationship between rival factions of his campaign's leadership has grown more testy, with sources… -
Trump Given 'Man Of The Century' AwardOct 23, 2026 at 03:01 AM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 06:00 AM EDT President Trump was given a “Man of the Century” award by a Republican congressional candidate on Thursday during a campaign rally in Iowa. The award was handed to Trump personally… -
Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy adPresident Trump sparred with a reporter over a controversial campaign ad from Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign featuring the estranged mother of opponent Amy Acton. Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy ad President… -
Trump defends Ramaswamy ad despite bipartisan backlashCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump defends… -
Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at rallyPresident Donald Trump mocks Rep. Ilhan Omar's "not to my knowledge" response when asked whether she was related to her former husband, bringing up the viral exchange during his campaign rally in Iowa ... Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at… -
BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized Ukraine ceasefireFirst lady Melania Trump announces she has personally secured a localized ceasefire in the city of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, allowing humanitarian aid to enter and civilians to evacuate safely. BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized… -
Trump’s Iran sanctions run into limitsThe Trump administration is steadily ratcheting up pressure on Iran with sanctions, but experts and former officials say the penalties thus far are having a limited effect on the Islamic Republic’s willingness to negotiate. Nate Swanson… -
Trump signs housing affordability executive orderThe order aims to reduce mortgage costs as interest rates soar before the midterms. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday aimed at reducing some costs associated with mortgages and boosting manufactured housing… -
America must reverse Trump’s moral squalorThe president shows a unique disregard for the opinions, norms and ideals of the nation – and, for that matter, humanity The Democrats’ focus on affordability seems to be a winning strategy (we’ll know for sure in a little over two weeks)…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance▼ 1
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 7
- Scott Jennings7%▼ 5
- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 3
28 more
- Maria Bartiromo5%
- Kayleigh McEnany5%▲ 1
- Monica Crowley4%▲ 3
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Margo Martin4%
- Natalie Harp3%▲ 1
- Taylor Rogers3%
- Lauren Bis3%
- Harrison Fields3%
- Katie Miller3%▼ 1
- Steven Cheung2%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Lara Trump2%
- Laura Loomer2%
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Liz Huston1%
- Alina Habba1%▼ 1
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Kari Lake1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 24, 2026?
38.79%median
38.35%39.05%
Median 38.79%Middle half 38.76% – 38.83%
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
33%December 31
- October 3111%▲ 9
- December 3133%▲ 8
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
27%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly27%▲ 4
- Scott Jennings9%▼ 4
- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 1
57 more
- Kari Lake3%
- Danielle Alvarez3%
- Margo Martin3%
- Maria Bartiromo3%
- Alina Habba2%
- No new person2%
- Roma Daravi2%
- Katie Miller2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Harrison Fields2%
- Ben Ferguson2%▼ 1
- Beni Rae Harmony2%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung1%▼ 1
- Jason Miller1%
- Sage Steele1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Liz Huston1%
- Natalie Harp1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Spencer Pratt1%
- Lara Trump1%
- Laura Loomer1%
- Jayme Franklin1%
- Erika Kirk1%
- Matthew Boyle1%
- Taylor Budowich1%
- Monica Crowley1%▼ 1
- Kush Desai1%
- Ari Fleischer1%
- Benny Johnson1%
- Matt Walsh1%
- Ben Shapiro1%
- Jack Posobiec1%
- Mike Cernovich1%
- Dan Bongino1%
- Kayleigh McEnany1%
- Taylor Rogers1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Katie Pavlich1%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%
- Pat Adams1%
- Kaelan Dorr1%
- Vanessa Broussard1%
- Cara Castronuova1%
- Mark Levin1%
- Logan Paul1%
- Jake Paul1%
- Eric Daugherty1%
- Erin Elmore Scavino1%
- Tulsi Gabbard1%
- Peter Doocy1%
- Sean Spicer1%
- Karoline Leavitt1%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio1%
- Kat Timpf1%
- Kaylee McGhee White1%
- George Santos1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.