Largest Company end of December 2026?
59%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA59%
- Apple38%▼ 1
- Alphabet2%
5 more
- Microsoft1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
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Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026
The odds
$502.07Bmedian
$450B$520B
Median $502.07B
How the odds have moved
Median: $502.41B on Oct 20, $502.07B now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $460 billion | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | 1.4K | ||
| Above $470 billion | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.5K | |
| Above $480 billion | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.3K | |
| Above $490 billion | 84% | 80¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 2.1K | |
| Above $500 billion | 56% | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 1.4K | |
| Above $510 billion | 27% | 22¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Shopify
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Shopify named a Leader in the 2025 Gartner® Magic Quadrant™Shopify is positioned highest for Ability to Execute. Get ahead of market trends, build unique brand experiences, and power your ambitions from one platform. Ranked #1 for the AI-enabled Commerce Use Case Gartner, Magic Quadrant for… -
How to Prevent Overselling Across Shopify, Amazon, and WalmartSelling products across Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart is a great way to reach more customers and grow your ecommerce business. However, managing inventory across multiple platforms can quickly become challenging, especially when orders… -
Brands Using Shopify Plus and What They Achieved (2026)See which major brands use Shopify Plus, what segments they operate in, and the results they measured after migrating. Shopify Plus is Shopify’s commerce plan for businesses with high sales volumes and complex retail needs. Shopify Plus… -
I Turned Shopify Objections Into Video Briefs With a Tiny YAML SchemaI was trying to make a short product video for a Shopify store whose customers kept asking one question: Will this actually work for my use case? My first instinct was to write a clever hook and generate a few AI UGC variations. That… -
The Somewhere Co. cuts average order time by 33% with B2B on ShopifyThe Somewhere Co. is an Australian brand that crafts bold and colorful wares for home, work, baby, and play. From cooler bags and woven rugs for picnic outings to weekend bags, umbrellas, and change mats, The Somewhere Co. is the one-stop… -
Shopify named a Leader in the 2024 Forrester Wave™: Commerce Solutions for B2B.The 2024 Forrester Wave™: Commerce Solutions for B2B is here! Discover what makes Shopify a Leader. Read it here. Forrester Wave™: Commerce Solutions for B2B New to Shopify? Start with a 3-day free trial What’s inside the 2024 Forrester… -
How to Calculate and Track Average Order Value on ShopifyAverage order value, or AOV, is one of the first numbers any Shopify store owner learns and one of the least carefully measured. Most people look at the figure on their dashboard, see that it went up or down, and move on. That is fine for… -
Shopify para pequeno negócio no Brasil: quanto custa de verdade em reais (out/2026)Resposta rápida: para começar sozinho(a), o plano Basic da Shopify custa US$ 29/mês no pagamento anual (cerca de R$ 151/mês no cartão brasileiro) ou US$ 39/mês no mensal (cerca de R$ 204). Mas a mensalidade não é o custo inteiro: tem taxa… -
How The Conran Shop halved its total cost of ownership with ShopifyFounded over five decades ago by visionary designer Sir Terence Conran, The Conran Shop epitomises modern luxury and refined craftsmanship. Celebrating their meticulously curated collection of contemporary furniture, lighting and home… -
What the Built for Shopify Badge Certifies, and What It Doesn'tIf you build Shopify apps, the Built for Shopify badge is a status you may be working toward, and one your users use to shortlist apps. This write-up goes through what the published criteria certify (speed limits and a traction floor), how… -
Calculate average order value from Shopify orders with the Admin GraphQL APIDisclosure: I work on Brix, a Shopify cart app. This post is about the maths and the API, and Brix is mentioned only at the end. Average order value (AOV) is total revenue divided by the number of orders. The formula is one line. Getting a… - Build a free shipping progress bar for Shopify with Liquid and JavaScriptDisclosure: I work on Brix, a Shopify cart app. This post shows how to build the feature yourself, and Brix is mentioned only at the end. A free shipping progress bar is one of the simplest cart features to add, and it works because it…
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- Saudi Aramco<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions