María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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Will OFAC end its Russian diesel import license? (Before Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
6%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 10% on Oct 19, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 675 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OFAC
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Screen names against the OFAC SDN list in Python, and where DIY breaksThe OFAC SDN list is public data. If your software touches counterparties, screening names against it is something you can prototype in an afternoon. This post does exactly that, then looks honestly at where the afternoon version stops… - OFAC grants POSCO license as YulChon enables payment for Russian coalPOSCO can pay for Russian coal purchased before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, despite sanctions against Russia. Law firm YulChon said on Oct. 21 that, representing POSCO, it succeeded in obtaining a special license related to…
- OFAC Broadens Cuba Sanctions and Restricts Payments and TravelBy Barnes & Thornburg LLP, Effective Sept. 30, OFAC put in place a significant tightening of U.S. sanctions on Cuba. OFAC issued a new CSR, 31 C.F.R. Part 516, and amended the long-standing Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR), 31…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions