Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
>99%chance
Install
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
The odds
68%$4/MTok or below
$0.0000$5
How the odds have moved
$1/MTok or below: 97% on Oct 20, 98% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1/MTok or below | 98% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 676 | |
| $2/MTok or below | 95% | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 2.7K | |
| $3/MTok or below | 85% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 4.4K |
| $4/MTok or below | 68% | ▼ 2 | 66¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 13.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Claude Opus
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.