María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
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Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
The odds
44%Pete Hegseth
- Pete Hegseth44%▲ 2
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.33%▼ 2
- Kash Patel23%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Pete Hegseth: 45% on Oct 20, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 44% | ▲ 2 | 40¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 6.5K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 33% | ▼ 2 | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 7.2K |
| Kash Patel | 23% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 7.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Defense Secretary and FBI Director, RFK Jr, HHS Secretary
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Cheryl Hines shares RFK Jr.'s eating habits when it comes to sweets and snacksActress Cheryl Hines discusses her husband's disciplined approach to food and RFK Jr.'s reaction when she eats potato chips in front of him. Cheryl Hines shares RFK Jr.'s eating habits when it comes to sweets and snacks Actress Cheryl… -
Cheryl Hines says she draws the line at one of RFK Jr's dining habitsActress Cheryl Hines shares how her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asks her to pack food in her handbag before going out to eat — and her reaction to it. Cheryl Hines says she draws the line at one of RFK Jr's dining habits Actress Cheryl… -
RFK Jr. visiting Michigan to celebrate Nutrition Education PledgeOctober 23, 2026 / 11:19 PM EDT / CBS Detroit Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to be in Michigan next week to celebrate the signing of the Nutrition Education Pledge by dozens of hospitals. The event is… -
Exit of RFK Jr. ally widens rift in GOP tentCalley Means' departure is the latest sign that Kennedy’s supporters are unhappy with how the White House is treating them. 10/23/2026 2:52 PM EDT Calley Means brought President Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. together. The Kennedy… -
RFK Jr.'s top adviser quits, MAHA reelsDelivered daily by 10 a.m., Pulse examines the latest news in health care politics and policy. By CARMEN PAUN, KELLY HOOPER and SOPHIE GARDNER 10/23/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Alice Miranda Ollstein MAHA DECRIES MEANS’ EXIT — Members… - He left the CDC to fight RFK Jr. But was it better to fight from within?Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Demetre Daskalakis…
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RFK Jr.’s vaccine injury clinic could damage NIH hospital, board warns“Trust is slow to build and quick to lose,” board chair Jack Leslie said. “The space in which this protocol will be conducted, the vaccine evaluation center inside the clinical center, has been in existence for decades,” Green said. Like… -
Trump, RFK Jr. face hostile reception at Libertarian convention amid efforts to sway votersUpdated on: May 27, 2024 / 12:30 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Former President Donald Trump and independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr.'s attempts to appeal to the Libertarian Party fell on deaf ears this weekend, with… -
RFK Jr. ally Calley Means quits Trump administration amid food agenda delaysBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Means has been a key… - HHS Secretary RFK Jr. touts dietary guidelines with Northeast Florida healthcare leadersU.S. Health and Human Services Department Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spent Wednesday in Orange Park as part of the department’s push for medical schools across America to provide additional coursework about the benefits of a…
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MAHA adviser who introduced RFK Jr. to Trump quits admin amid frustrations over food policyCalley Means, a prominent figure in the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, resigned from his position as a senior Trump health official on Thursday over frustrations with the government’s progress tackling chronic disease, according to… -
RFK Jr. Wins MRC’s Free Speech America AwardU.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was awarded the Media Research Center’s 2026 Free Speech Award for defending the First Amendment. What would you like to watch today? RFK Jr. Wins MRC’s Free Speech America…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions