Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will Trump order more tariffs in Oct 2026?
Settled YesA day before, traders gave it 21%: an upset.
The last odds before it closed
—chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 27% on Oct 20, 21% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Yes | 98% | 9.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
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Trump’s tariffs loom over Maine Senate race between Collins and JacksonPORTLAND, Maine — The same week President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on imported steel, the domestic supplier of the wire mesh Mark Brooks uses to make lobster traps in Maine hiked prices by 20%. "It's basically the worst business… -
Carney says Trump’s tariffs hurt Americans as US Embassy alleges Canadian interferenceThe Washington Post Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised costs for American families and upended decades of trade as he unveiled a $6.2 billion plan to protect Canada’s… -
Trump’s war and tariffs have battered Alaska. A pro-oil Democrat could flip the key Senate seatDemocrats believe circumstances have aligned for them to win a slew of competitive elections in the state Mary Peltola’s campaign to represent Alaska in the US Senate has taken her to parts of the massive state’s interior that are… -
Tariffs loom over Maine's midtermsCNBC Tariffs loom over Maine's midterms -
Trump Accused of Unlawfully Invoking 1930s Law for Canada TariffsOct 21, 2026 at 05:14 AM EDT A New Jersey food importer has accused President Donald Trump of unlawfully invoking a rarely used 1930s trade law to impose 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian goods. Gellert Global Group filed a lawsuit on… -
US food importer sues Trump administration over 50% tariffs on Canadian goodsKaran Ramchandani, managing director for capital ,markets at Post Oak Group, breaks down how U.S.-Canada tariffs and USMCA uncertainty disrupt auto, steel, and lumber sectors, freeze long-term capital and push costs to consumers and small… -
Trump’s Tariffs Loom Over Maine Senate RaceCNBC: “Few states have been as vulnerable in the U.S.-Canada trade war as Maine, which sends more than 40% of its exports to the U.S.’s northern neighbor. Those challenges are also piling on top of cost-of-living issues that were already… -
Trump says tariffs never came up during China trip"We didn't discuss tariffs," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as the plane refueled in Anchorage, Alaska. Asked why, he responded: "Wasn't brought up." President Donald Trump said Friday that tariffs never came up during his… -
canada-ontario-carney-ford-trump-tariffs: Latest Updates | Audacycanada-ontario-carney-ford-trump-tariffs: Latest Updates Audacy Ask your smart speaker to The On Deadline Podcast KNX News On Demand Do You Work Here? In a Minute with Evan Lovett KNX Hero of the Week Asian shares retreat after strong… -
DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics biteCNBC DSV: Customs activity at record high as tariffs and geopolitics bite -
Carney says Trump’s tariffs hurt Americans as U.S. alleges Canadian interferenceTelegraphHerald.com Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, not shown, participate in a joint news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026. TORONTO â Canadian Prime Minister Mark…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.