Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 31<1%
- December 314%
Install
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? (Before 2045)
The odds
46%Hodge Conjecture
- Hodge Conjecture46%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture27%▲ 1
- Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem22%▼ 1
- Riemann Hypothesis3%
- P versus NP Problem2%
How the odds have moved
Hodge Conjecture: 45% on Oct 20, 46% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hodge Conjecture | 46% | 45¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 1.9K | |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture | 27% | ▲ 1 | 26¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 627 |
| Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem | 22% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 200 |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 58.00 | |
| P versus NP Problem | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Millennium Prize Problem, Hodge Conjecture
Search ›-
Harvard mathematicians debate whether AI proofs need human understanding after OpenAI’s Navier-Stokes claimOpenAI's claimed progress on a Millennium Prize Problem has Harvard faculty asking whether a correct proof is worth much if no person truly grasps it OpenAI official logo (public domain, Wikimedia Commons) — CryptoBriefing brand treatment… -
Add ‘post-AI’ encryption to your to-do listGetty Images / J Studios Even as federal agencies move their most sensitive systems to new forms of encryption following an order from the White House in June, the release this month by OpenAI of new results to theoretical math problems… -
What’s the point of MIT? OpenAI’s math proofs have thrown students and researchers into chaos.By Michaela Towfighi, The Boston Globe Inside the math department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, more than 100 students, professors, and postdocs solemnly shuffled into a lecture hall, as if they were going to group therapy… -
‘Just answering the questions is not the point’: Dartmouth mathematicians weigh artificial intelligence’s role in the future of their workThe manuscripts, generated by an unreleased OpenAI model, were organized into 372 groups of related findings and published on GitHub, an online platform where people can publish, share and collaborate on code, research and other project… -
Navier-Stokes, AI And Maths IntegrityWhen OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 that it had solved the Navier–Stokes smoothness problem, the news rent the social media space. Within days of the announcement, the claim generated extensive discussion across X (formerly Twitter)… -
The Best Time to Study Math Is Right Now. Here Is the Framework That Proves It.AI just solved a Millennium Prize problem and dumped 722 machine-generated proofs on GitHub. MIT math students are in … The Best Time to Study Math Is Right Now. Here Is the Framework That Proves It. AI just solved a Millennium Prize… -
Top mathematicians grade AI’s ability to solve toughest problemsThird round of First Proof tests document the technology’s impressive gains and stubborn shortcomings Oct 19, 2026 | 6 minutes Less than a year ago, a Harvard math professor joined a handful of world-leading scholars on an ambitious… -
Who was George Gabriel Stokes? The Irish mathematician whose 180-year-old puzzle has AI giants at warA mathematical problem is making big news, with AI companies clashing over claims by one tech giant to have found the solution to the Navier-Stokes equations. Regarded as one of trickiest puzzles of mathematics, it has Irish connection… -
AI Proved the Quasi-Riemann Hypothesis. What Happens Now?The Riemann hypothesis is a fundamental statement about the distribution of prime numbers. The Riemann hypothesis has been an open problem for over 160 years. Resolving it would enable mathematicians to better understand the nature of… -
3 Questions: What Is the Best Path Forward for AI in Academia?By Stefanie Koperniak | Institute for Data, Systems, and Society | MIT News With artificial intelligence capabilities continuing to expand, universities now face complex, urgent questions about how to navigate increasing challenges, as… -
Why are mathematicians concerned about OpenAI’s AI solving problems that stumped researchers for years?OpenAI has released more than 700 AI-generated mathematical research papers, raising hopes that artificial intelligence could accelerate scientific discovery while prompting concerns about the reliability of its findings and the future of… -
AI expanding the frontier of human knowledgeOn Sept. 29, Elon Musk stood outside the White House alongside President Trump and top artificial intelligence executives after an indoor AI leadership luncheon. Addressing reporters on the driveway, Mr. Musk offered an optimistic…
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20.02%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 20.02%Middle half 19.89% – 20.36%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%
- Anthropic8%▲ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Nov 5, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
- December 31, 202756%▼ 3
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
65%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3165%▼ 11
- October 2720%▲ 7
- October 295%
11 more
- October 264%▲ 1
- October 283%▼ 1
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%
- October 251%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.