Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Josh Shapiro margin of victory
The odds
24.5median
137
Median 24.5Middle half 21.0 – 28.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 24.9 on Oct 20, 24.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shapiro, 4+ pts | 97% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 105 | |
| Shapiro, 7+ pts | 97% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 649 | |
| Shapiro, 10+ pts | 96% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 713 | |
| Shapiro, 13+ pts | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.2K | |
| Shapiro, 16+ pts | 90% | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.06 | 1.1K | |
| Shapiro, 19+ pts | 86% | ▲ 4 | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 3.9K |
| Shapiro, 22+ pts | 70% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 556 |
| Shapiro, 25+ pts | 46% | 42¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 3.0K | |
| Shapiro, 28+ pts | 26% | 21¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 1.5K | |
| Shapiro, 31+ pts | 7% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Shapiro, 34+ pts | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor
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Gov. Josh Shapiro touts record, labor support at Pittsburgh campaign rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 11:21 PM EDT / CBS Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied on Pittsburgh's South Side Saturday as part of a stop on his get-out-the-vote statewide bus tour. The event was held at the IBEW Local 5 Hall 10 days… -
Gov. Josh Shapiro Kicks Off Bus Tour in Erie Before ElectionWith the general election less than two weeks away, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro kicked off his campaign bus tour in Erie on Saturday morning, where he was greeted by dozens of supporters. Those who attended the kickoff rally said… -
Pennsylvania governor expected to sign school cellphone ban into lawCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting… -
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro Courts Rural GOP Voters, Defends State Elections In CNN InterviewPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro CNN Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro defended the integrity of his state’s voting systems and laid out his second-term legislative priorities during an interview Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Speaking… -
Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigns for re-election in PA; discusses jobs, abortion rights, housing costsPENNSYLVANIA - With the midterm elections inching closer, candidates are hitting the campaign trail to win over undecided voters. Gov. Josh Shapiro was recently in Meadville, Pennsylvania - a city in Northwestern Pennsylvania to campaign… -
Governor Shapiro calls Vice President Vance 'pathetically weak' for defending Vivek Ramaswamy's ad of Amy Acton's mother.Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro criticizes Vice President Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate for governor of Ohio, for doubling down on an ad featuring his opponent's estranged mother. Governor Shapiro calls Vice… -
Exclusive – Rep. Scott Perry: Gov. Josh Shapiro Envisions Himself ‘Running for President,’ ‘That’s What He’s Gearing Up For’Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) envisions himself “running for president,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), up for reelection in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. Perry spoke about… -
Josh Shapiro’s second-term push for PA governor: Key issues, background, pollingPENNSYLVANIA - With Election Day less than three weeks away, Gov. Josh Shapiro is asking Pennsylvania voters for a second term as he faces Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity on the Nov. 3 ballot. Shapiro, alongside Lt. Gov. Austin… -
Why Josh Shapiro put himself on the line for the midterms — but still won’t talk about 2028There’s been a noticeable shift in the first-term Democrat, as he's gone all-in to flip the state Senate and is more willing to directly challenge President Donald Trump. That's not by accident. Josh Shapiro knows you’re going to ask. He… -
Josh Shapiro Headed for Crushing Win in PennsylvaniaA new Franklin & Marshall College poll finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 59% to 36%. Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 59% Stacy Garrity (R) 36% Franklin & Marshall College poll · likely voters · ±4.1%… -
Josh Shapiro maintains lead over Stacy Garrity in Pennsylvania gubernatorial race: pollWHP CBS 21 Harrisburg provides local news, weather, sports, community events and items of interest for Harrisburg Lancaster Lebanon York and nearby towns and communities in the greater Harrisburg area including, Hershey, Hummelstown… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign…
Related markets
All governors ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions