Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
How the odds have moved
Figures, 2+ pts: 18% on Oct 25, 24% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 10 PM ETFigures, 2+ pts: 18% → 24%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures, 2+ pts | 24% | 19¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 200 | |
| Figures, 5+ pts | 13% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.3K | |
| Figures, 8+ pts | 6% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 615 | |
| Figures, 11+ pts | 4% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | $12.35 | 200 | |
| Figures, 14+ pts | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.13 | 100 | |
| Figures, 17+ pts | 3% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | $18.52 | 100 | |
| Figures, 20+ pts | 3% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | $19.23 | ||
| Figures, 23+ pts | 3% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Figures, 26+ pts | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 5.00 | |
| Figures, 29+ pts | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 3.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alabama
Search ›-
WAFF | Alabama News, Weather, Sports | Huntsville, AlabamaHuntsville, Alabama latest news, weather & sports from WAFF 48 Kitchen Cops find cross-contamination concerns in DeKalb County Lauderdale Co. woman charged with threatening to shoot Trump at Alabama-Georgia game Madison County High School… -
East coast burger chain to open new Alabama locationA new Shake Shack will open in early 2027 on Highway 280 in Hoover, marking the burger chain's second Alabama location with at least three more planned around Alabama. A new Birmingham restaurant will be part of a mixed-use development at… -
Young Alabama conservatives cover the Capitol steps with more than 2,300 cans of food for Feeding AlabamaPatriot’s Pantry started with a simple idea: empower Alabama’s young conservatives to take personal responsibility for their society through community service and volunteer leadership. It grew into a statewide effort that concluded with… -
Tuberville vows 20%+ crime crackdown in Alabama’s four largest cities ‘until the streets are safe’U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-Auburn) wants to be Alabama’s next governor so he can help fight against crime in the Yellowhammer State. The Republican nominee in the gubernatorial race released a 21-page governing agenda Thursday titled… -
How Alabama's Republicans are disenfranchising Black voters – videoA battle for Alabama’s second congressional district is being fought against a backdrop of partisan gerrymandering and America’s ongoing civil rights struggle. Oliver Laughland and Tom Silverstone track down the Maga Republican Rhett… -
Meet the candidates: Alabama’s race for TreasurerMONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Alabamians will soon decide between an incumbent and a new face for the state’s Treasurer. Two candidates are competing for votes on Nov. 3. Current Treasurer Young Boozer is running for a fourth term in office… -
Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama file lawsuits over states that shield providers of mail-order abortion pillsTwo lawsuits filed last month by Arkansas, Louisiana and Alabama represent a new front in the ongoing fight over abortion in the post-Roe era, pitting red states with strict abortion bans against blue states that seek to protect healthcare… -
A Homeowner’s Last Stand Against Alabama PowerOur nonprofit newsroom investigates the biggest threats to our planet, holds decision-makers accountable, and pushes back on climate disinformation so facts stay front and center. CALERA, Ala.—Fenn Church knew what he had to do. “I’m going… -
Independent Joe Cleveland runs for Alabama House District 35— Joe Cleveland, a 33-year-old machinist from Ironaton, is the Independent candidate for Alabama House District 35. — His key platform includes local data center oversight, Flock camera regulation and funding projects like rural school bus… -
Alabama Now Requires Training for Mayors and City Council MembersA new state requirement puts elected municipal officials through training on budgeting, ethics, zoning and the legal limits of their authority. Internet Explorer 11 is not supported Alabama Now Requires Training for Mayors and City Council… -
Why One Alabama City Favors Regulation Over Data Center BanUnlike other cities in the Birmingham metro area, the mayor of Irondale, Ala., says that the city won’t temporarily halt data center development within city limits, instead looking at regulations. IE 11 Not Supported Why One Alabama City… - Steve Hurst seeks final term in Alabama House District 35— Incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Hurst is seeking one final four-year term representing District 35 in the Alabama House. — Hurst has served in the state legislature since 1998, prioritizing constituent services and state tourism…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
31.8median
948
Median 31.8Middle half 26.9 – 36.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions