Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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New Mexico Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
20.9median
733
Median 20.9Middle half 15.8 – 26.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 20.2 on Oct 20, 20.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luján, 9+ pts | 94% | 90¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 269 | |
| Luján, 11+ pts | 91% | 86¢ | 96¢ | $1.05 | 384 | |
| Luján, 13+ pts | 86% | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 378 | |
| Luján, 15+ pts | 78% | 73¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 420 | |
| Luján, 17+ pts | 70% | 65¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 582 | |
| Luján, 19+ pts | 61% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 325 |
| Luján, 21+ pts | 50% | 45¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 2.7K | |
| Luján, 23+ pts | 40% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 25.00 |
| Luján, 25+ pts | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 27.00 | |
| Luján, 27+ pts | 22% | ▲ 1 | 17¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 19.00 |
| Luján, 29+ pts | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 11.00 | |
| Luján, 31+ pts | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New Mexico Senate
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New Mexico state treasurer candidate questionnairesCity or area of primary residence: Cedar Crest Educational background: Bachelor of Arts in physics and political science, Clemson University; Master of Science in mechanical engineering and Master of Science in technology and policy… -
Brandt named vice chair of National Energy Security Advisory BoardDestinction result of Brandt's efforts to advocate during Israel conflicts, according to release RIO RANCHO — New Mexico District 40 Sen. Craig Brandt (R) was announced Council for a Secure America’s newly established State Legislative… -
Transcript: The Blue Wave Is Coming to the States As WellThis is a lightly edited transcript of the October 14 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Chaz Nuttycombe: Yeah, thanks for having me. Bacon: So I think you…
Related markets
All around the world ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions