Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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New Mexico's 1st District margin of victory
The odds
23.3median
838
Median 23.3Middle half 15.7 – 30.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 23.4 on Oct 19, 23.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stansbury, 11+ pts | 92% | 88¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 195 | |
| Stansbury, 14+ pts | 81% | ▼ 1 | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | |
| Stansbury, 17+ pts | 71% | ▼ 1 | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | |
| Stansbury, 20+ pts | 61% | 56¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | ||
| Stansbury, 23+ pts | 51% | 46¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | ||
| Stansbury, 26+ pts | 40% | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | ||
| Stansbury, 29+ pts | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | ||
| Stansbury, 32+ pts | 20% | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 6.00 | |
| Stansbury, 35+ pts | 10% | 5¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 35.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New Mexico
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The 2028 crop hits New MexicoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/24/2026 10:36 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Saturday morning. This is Ali Bianco in the driver’s seat. Only 10 days left until the… -
How a New Mexico lawsuit ‘win’ vs. Meta could tank the whole US economyNew Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez’s big win against Meta last week means huge risks for every successful company in America; if this decision holds up, the same garbage-lawsuit model could destroy any business. It’s a victory for… - The 2028 crop hits New Mexico for inaugural ‘Matanza’ rallyThe “Fourth in the Nation Matanza Rally” is testing the appetite for a more Latino-specific cultural touchstone to round out the presidential candidate event rotation. 10/24/2026 11:19 AM EDT Prospective presidential candidates are known…
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‘Just the beginning’: New Mexico AG warns AI industry after $25B Meta rulingNew Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez said the record-setting judgment should encourage more states to take the tech industry to trial. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez (D) discusses a judgment in the state's Facebook case during… -
Soros-backed New Mexico AG behind $25B Meta lawsuit accused of seeking ‘tax on speech’The jaw-dropping $25 billion penalty Meta was slapped with on Oct. 21 is raising questions about New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez’s crackdown on the company’s privacy and content-moderation practices. The massive fine could have a… -
New Mexico activists rally against Oracle’s multibillion-dollar data centerLAS CRUCES, New Mexico (KVIA)-- Following three days of statewide organizing, activists from across New Mexico and across the country gathered at New Mexico State University to protest Oracle’s multi-billion-dollar planned "Project… -
Understanding the upcoming New Mexico ballot issues | OpinionI mostly support the ballot's four Constitutional Amendments. And please vote for the library GO Bond issue, which won't increase tax rates. Hugely important to quality of life, our library hasn't had a major structural update since it… -
Democratic presidential hopefuls pitch populist economics at New Mexico ‘matanza’U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, left, speaks with U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, right, and human rights activist Samia Assed, middle, during the Fourth in the Nation Matanza Rally on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 at the Anderson Abruzzo Albuquerque… -
Severe thunderstorms leave New Mexico communities littered with damages⚠️ STORM AFTERMATH: Police officers in Santa Fe, New Mexico, survey the scene following a severe thunderstorm that brought intense wind gusts to neighborhoods, leaving numerous trees ripped from the ground amongst other damage scattered… -
The Roundhouse Report: Lawmaker wants New Mexico to cut investments tied to Russia, MuskSen. Jeff Steinborn, D-Las Cruces, center, speaks with Sen. Rex Wilson, D-Ancha, on the Senate floor on Friday, Jan. 23, 2026, at the state Capitol. A Democratic state senator is asking the New Mexico State Investment Council to cease… - Update: San Juan County, New Mexico, in crisisRiver waters rise, 1,500 homes evacuated, governor promises $3.75 million in resources Friday, Oct 23, 2026 2:34 PM MT Updated Sunday, Oct 25, 2026 1:47 PM MT We sent a confirmation link to . Open that email and click the link to return to…
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OPINION: In service to New Mexico — not a political partyI've sworn two oaths. Neither one was to a political party. Progressives in Washington, D.C., have spent a lot of money this year telling you who I answer to. So let me tell you myself. I was born in New Mexico and grew up in Albuquerque's…
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All around the world ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
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Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions