Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Maryland Governor margin of victory
The odds
31.9median
1545
Median 31.9Middle half 26.5 – 37.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 32.8 on Oct 19, 31.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore, 18+ pts | 94% | 91¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| Moore, 21+ pts | 92% | 87¢ | 97¢ | $1.04 | 62.00 | |
| Moore, 24+ pts | 84% | 80¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 201 | |
| Moore, 27+ pts | 73% | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Moore, 30+ pts | 60% | 55¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 555 | |
| Moore, 33+ pts | 44% | 39¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 114 | |
| Moore, 36+ pts | 30% | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 473 | |
| Moore, 39+ pts | 19% | 15¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 343 | |
| Moore, 42+ pts | 9% | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 40.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Maryland Governor
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Maryland governor shares voters’ demands of Democrats: ‘Push forward’ past TrumpPresident Trump is trying to pitch voters on another two years of Republican control of Congress and he’s promising voters payouts if the GOP pulls off the unlikely victory. Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D) joins Antonia Hylton to share his… - Candidates for Maryland governor meet in only debate before electionDemocrat incumbent Governor Wes Moore and republican challenger Dan Cox square off in their only debate before the November election. Reporters Samantha Cohen and Brandyn Fragosa recap highlights from the televised debate. OWINGS MILLS…
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DNC chair race kicks off, as Martin O’Malley announces bidThe former Maryland governor told POLITICO he’ll resign as head of the Social Security Administration at the end of the month. Social Security Administration commissioner Martin O'Malley testifies during a Senate Finance Committee hearing… -
Maryland voters turn out for first day of early voting: "It's what people have died for"October 22, 2026 / 6:04 PM EDT / CBS Baltimore Early voting is underway in Maryland, with voters heading to the polls to weigh in on key issues, including education, affordability, the race for governor and a controversial ballot question… -
Midterm messaging hits fever pitch as Dems convey urgency for massive turnout in closing argumentsThere are new concerns over the freedom of U.S. elections as the Trump administration launched their first attempts to deny certification of results in California and Alaska. Maryland Governor Wes Moore (D) joins Antonia Hylton to share… -
What is motivating youth this election cycle: ‘The system promised is not currently working’MS NOW What is motivating youth this election cycle: ‘The system promised is not currently working’ Midterm messaging hits fever pitch as Dems convey urgency for massive turnout in closing arguments Obama brings moral focus to Democrats’… -
Obama brings moral focus to Democrats’ closing message with just days until the midtermsMS NOW National Reporter Rosa Flores, The Atlantic Contributing Writer James Surowiecki, Mockler Media Founder Adam Mockler, and host of Slate’s “What Next: TBD” podcast Lizzie O’Leary join Antonia Hylton at the Assignment Desk to share… -
'This Week' Transcript 10-25-26: Rep. Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek & Gov. Wes MooreThis is a rush transcript of "This Week" airing Sunday, October 25. A rush transcript of "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" airing on Sunday, October 25, 2026 on ABC News is below. This copy may not be in its final form, may be updated… -
East 46th Street Fatal CrashAn investigation is underway after at least one person was killed in a fatal crash on Indy's northeast side Sunday morning. President Trump said he's deciding between reaching an agreement with Tehran and taking action to "finish them… -
Gov. Wes Moore says key races in South 'in play,' Democrats 'made mistakes' not investing earlierThe Maryland governor expressed confidence Democrats would win big in November. Gov. Wes Moore (D-Md.) said Sunday that he believes several statewide races in the historically red U.S. South are “in play” for Democrats this cycle, adding… -
Secretary of State candidate Tad Jude aims to 'clean up" MN fraudRepublican candidate for Minnesota Secretary of State, Tad Jude, is challenging incumbent Steve Simon. He says he supports requiring a government ID to vote and aims to clean up Minnesota's fraud problem. Jude also says a vote should be… -
OPINION: Vote no on more gerrymandering in MarylandIncluded on the ballot for the 2026 midterm elections are three questions on approving amendments to the Maryland Constitution. The end result of voter approval of Question 3 is predictable. Supporters of gerrymandering in the general…
Related markets
All governors ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions