Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.7
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Illinois Governor margin of victory
The odds
21.6median
336
Median 21.6Middle half 16.1 – 26.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 22.6 on Oct 20, 21.6 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pritzker, 6+ pts | 96% | 94¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 975 | |
| Pritzker, 9+ pts | 94% | 91¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 1.1K | |
| Pritzker, 12+ pts | 91% | ▼ 2 | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 588 |
| Pritzker, 15+ pts | 80% | ▼ 5 | 76¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 445 |
| Pritzker, 18+ pts | 68% | ▼ 4 | 63¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 326 |
| Pritzker, 21+ pts | 53% | ▼ 4 | 48¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 135 |
| Pritzker, 24+ pts | 37% | ▼ 3 | 32¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 237 |
| Pritzker, 27+ pts | 24% | ▼ 2 | 20¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 53.00 |
| Pritzker, 30+ pts | 12% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 1.2K |
| Pritzker, 33+ pts | 5% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 10¢ | $10.31 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois Governor
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Pritzker Leads Bailey in Illinois Governor RaceActiVote’s October 22, 2026 Illinois Governor poll finds that Democrat J.B. Pritzker leads Republican Darren Bailey by 17.4%. The poll was in the field between October 2 and October 22 (median field date of October 12). The poll was among… - Illinois governor should follow New York’s example and opt into school choice program, commentator saysIllinois Gov. JB Pritzker should follow New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead and opt into the new Education Freedom Tax Credit (EFTC), Sam Raus argues in RealClear Education. “Few blue states have done so thus far, making Hochul’s decision a…
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Eye On Illinois: Governor, lawmakers seem likely to force Bears to make site choiceA lot can change in two weeks – but how much can happen in six business days? The fall veto session runs Nov. 17-19 and Dec. 1-3. Unlike the wonky spring term schedule where the House and Senate seemed to be staggered so there were never… -
‘Can You Actually Talk Without Mentioning Trump?’: Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker Catches Flak After Calling Trump a LiarThe accusations did not sit well with Trump supporters Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has recently accused U.S. President Donald Trump of lying to working-class Americans, a remark that sparked major backlash against him. The Illinois… -
Indian-American Vivek Ramaswamy is ‘thirsty’ for attention, says Obama in OhioWashington, Oct 25 (IANS) Former US President Barack Obama mocked Indian-American Republican Vivek Ramaswamy as “thirsty” for attention at his first rally of the midterm campaign, saying the Ohio governor candidate had shown “there is no… -
Pro-Israel Dem PAC, two liberal billionaires spending millions to prop up Shomari FiguresResidents of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District are facing a deluge of political advertisements ahead of November 3, with Democrat spending significantly outpacing Republicans. But the heavy disparity in advertising isn’t because of… -
Trump urges Illinois Republicans to vote by mail, endorses Darren Bailey but skips Senate nominee Don TracyPresident Donald Trump took to social media Thursday night with an Illinois-focused post that was notable for what it didn’t include: invective-laced attacks on Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Instead, the… -
John T. Shaw: ‘Child of Illinois’ offers powerful lessons on statecraft and serviceIn an era of brash and brazen self-promotion, former ambassador Donald McHenry stands as an exemplar of a better time and a better way. He is soft-spoken, understated and respectful. He communicates with measured statements, probing… -
Ohio governor's race turns ugly with attack ad featuring candidate's estranged motherThe race to be Ohio's next governor has turned ugly after the Republican candidate released an advertisement in which his Democratic opponent's estranged mother urged people not to vote for her in the upcoming midterm elections. In the ad… -
Collin Corbett, Independent candidate for Illinois GovernorCorbett is one of three candidates running for Governor. Will is the host of the WTAX Morning Newswatch, and is also the Editor-in-Chief of CapitolCityNow.com. He has won numerous awards from the Illinois News Broadcasters Association… -
Pritzker sends $1 million to Georgia governor’s raceThe billionaire Illinois governor is helping Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, who has been badly outspent by billionaire governor candidate Rick Jackson. The donation is the latest effort in Gov. JB Pritzker’s national midterm spending… -
A room full of love and optimism: Inside the Al Raby Way dedicationFY 2027 budget demands from Chicago organizers How to vote in the 2026 Midterms in Chicago I’m Al Raby’s daughter, and I’m still smiling from Friday. About 100 people filled The Grand Ballroom on Cottage Grove in Chicago to dedicate Al…
Related markets
All governors ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.5median
2454
Median 38.5Middle half 32.7 – 43.4
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.2median
4272
Median 59.2Middle half 54.3 – 63.5
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 28.9
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.1median
1548
Median 26.1Middle half 20.6 – 31.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions