Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
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Iowa Governor margin of victory
The odds
5.52median
-118
Median 5.52Middle half 1.90 – 8.74
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.28 on Oct 20, 5.52 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sand, 1+ pts | 80% | ▼ 2 | 77¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.00 |
| Sand, 3+ pts | 70% | ▲ 1 | 69¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 15.6K |
| Sand, 4+ pts | 61% | ▲ 2 | 58¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 21.00 |
| Sand, 6+ pts | 47% | ▲ 4 | 46¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 22.5K |
| Sand, 7+ pts | 42% | ▲ 10 | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 1.3K |
| Sand, 9+ pts | 23% | ▲ 2 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 31.6K |
| Sand, 12+ pts | 12% | ▲ 4 | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 6.9K |
| Sand, 15+ pts | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iowa Governor
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Iowa governor's race is most expensive in state history: Who’s funding it?The Iowa race for governor has become the most expensive in state history, with Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn raising a combined $81 million for the campaign. Sand has raised about $54 million while Lahn has raised about $27… -
Candidates for Iowa governor discuss their top priorities: cancer, cost of livingDES MOINES, Iowa (Iowa Capital Dispatch) - In the race for Iowa governor, Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn agree addressing high cancer rates and making life more affordable for Iowans are their top priorities if elected Nov. 3… -
Iowa governor race sees record fundraisingIowa’s competitive congressional and statewide races have brought in record-high campaign fundraising hauls for the state ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026 election. Sand has raised more than twice as much as Lahn over the course of the 2026… -
Iowa governor race shatters state fundraising recordThe race to be the next Iowa governor is officially the most expensive in state history. CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) - The race to be the next Iowa governor is officially the most expensive in state history. So far this year, Zach Lahn and… -
‘I think it’s time to try something different’ on Iowa governor, labor head says“More private schools, less healthcare, lower wages—we’ve already been headed in this direction as a state. I think it’s time to try something different.” That’s Charlie Wishman, president of the Iowa Federation of Labor AFL-CIO, the… -
Lahn raises more, but Sand holds cash advantage in Iowa governor’s raceIowa’s candidates for governor raised more than $33 million over three months. Republican Zach Lahn narrowly led in cash fundraising, while Democrat Rob Sand headed into the final stretch before Election Day with a much larger balance… -
Rob Sand withdraws from Iowa governor debate after brother-in-law’s deathDemocratic nominee for governor Rob Sand has withdrawn from a debate scheduled for Wednesday, his campaign confirmed Monday evening. Sand's campaign said the decision follows the death of his brother-in-law in a traffic accident last week… -
Iowa’s candidates for governor won’t reschedule third debateZach Lahn (left) and Rob Sand, the candidates for Iowa governor. Iowa’s candidates for governor will not face off for a third debate after attempts to reschedule the event failed. The announcement comes after Democratic candidate Rob Sand… -
Panel Reacts: Trump Rallies in Iowa for Hinson as Senate, Governor Races TightenTiffany Meier's panel reacts to President Trump’s Iowa stop boosting Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek in a race Cook rates a toss-up, and weigh the record-breaking $81 million Iowa governor’s contest… -
Many Iowa voters remain steadfast in support for Trump amid lower approval ratingsLori Guffey (left) of Arlington, Nebraska, and Vanessa Layman of Fremont, Nebraska, are shown Thursday morning in the line of people waiting to get into a Republican Party rally featuring President Donald Trump at Sioux Gateway Airport… -
Rob Sand talks water quality, his family's business, how he would fill vacanciesEDITOR'S NOTE: This is the second of two Q-and-A's from a Journal Editorial Board interview with Iowa Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand. Iowa Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand answers questions about legalizing marijuana… -
President Trump stumps for Iowa Republicans at Sioux Gateway AirportSIOUX CITY, Iowa (KCAU) — Thursday marked the seventh time president trump was in Sioux city and the second time he's spoke here at the Sioux Gateway Airport. "I want to just say a special hello to Iowa. It's an incredible place. I'm…
Related markets
All governors ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions