Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?
97%chance▼ 1
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Ken Martin out as DNC chair? (Before Jan 2027)
The odds
Oct 23, 2027even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20267%▼ 5
- Before Dec 1, 202624%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▼ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202740%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 6% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 3.2K | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 478 | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7% | ▼ 5 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 20.00 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 24% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 354 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 26% | ▼ 2 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 14.5K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 40% | ▲ 1 | 36¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 499 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 624 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ken Martin
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Ken Martin jumps into race for DNC chairThe head of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party announced his bid Tuesday. Ken Martin (left) confirmed his candidacy in a text to POLITICO. It was first reported by the New York Times. | Nathan Howard/AP 11/19/2024 8:11 AM EST A… -
Leavitt says Trump is defying midterm headwinds as he barnstorms countryFormer White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tells Fox News Digital President Trump is not backing down despite GOP midterm headwinds MANCHESTER, N.H. - Former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Donald Trump… -
Trump says Amy Acton is ‘fair game’ | CNN PoliticsPresident Donald Trump on Thursday called Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton “fair game” as he defended Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad that features her estranged mother and ignored the abuse allegations against her… -
Tracking billionaire donations in the midterm elections | CNN PoliticsHundreds of millions of dollars from billionaires, like Elon Musk and Mike Bloomberg, are pouring into the midterms in the final weeks before Election Day. CNN's David Wright breaks down what candidates and issues are benefiting most from… -
Washington Post: Hegseth’s staff damaged historic Eisenhower globe during move | CNN PoliticsThe Washington Post reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s staff didn't follow the process typically overseen by trained curators and dropped a historic globe used by Dwight D. Eisenhower during World War II while moving it to… -
Trump says he called Google to rename Atlantic Ocean | CNN PoliticsPresident Donald Trump continues to raise renaming various bodies of water to include "America." While at a rally in South Carolina, he said he called Google CEO Sundar Pichai to rename the Atlantic Ocean because they were "really great… -
DNC Panel Affirms Priorities as Gaza Debate ContinuesEarly in the Aug. 26 meeting, members advanced Chair Ken Martin’s humanitarian-focused Gaza resolution. The text cited the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and the hostages still held by the terror group, detailed the… -
‘It’s quite beneath you’: El-Sayed responds to Rogers’ attack about Muslim Brotherhood | CNN PoliticsMichigan Senate candidates Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had a tense exchange over accusations that El-Sayed has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed, who has denounced the group, told Rogers, “It’s really quite… - Free membership to help older residents stay active and connectedNottingham City Council is launching Active Older Lives, a new programme designed to help older residents across the city get active or return to activity, stay healthy and connected. From 5 November 2026, Nottingham City Council will…
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DNC Targets Battleground Districts With August ‘Organizing Summer’ CampaignThe Democratic National Committee (DNC) unveiled a monthlong organizing campaign during Congress’s August recess to highlight opposition to the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Dubbed “Organizing Summer,” the effort, which was announced… -
DNC Chairman Ken Martin sees opportunity in South Carolina. Some see work to do.Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin talks with South Carolina Statehouse candidate Katie Crosby at an event in Lancaster County on Oct. 18, 2026. Crosby lost to Republican Mike Neese by 22 points in 2024 but expects a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions