María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Install
Lisa Cook departure announced? (Before Jan 2026)
The odds
30%Before Jan 2029
- Before Jan 202713%▲ 2
- Before Jul 202716%▲ 1
- Before Jan 202821%▲ 1
- Before Jul 202825%▲ 1
- Before Jan 202930%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 2027: 8% on Oct 20, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 8.7K | |||
| Before Jan 2027 | 13% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 52.0K |
| Before Jul 2027 | 16% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | |
| Before Jan 2028 | 21% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| Before Jul 2028 | 25% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | |
| Before Jan 2029 | 30% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lisa Cook
Search ›-
Lisa Cook’s Attorney Challenges Fairness of White House ProbeFederal Reserve board member Lisa Cook’s attorney called into question the fairness and objectivity of a White House probe after President Donald Trump announced a new committee to investigate whether Cook made false statements. A year… -
DOJ Charges Virginia Senate Leader, Louise LucasThe Trump administration has charged one of the most powerful Democratic lawmakers in Virginia with racketeering and money laundering conspiracy in connection to a cannabis business she co-owns with family members. Six other people were… -
Torsten Slok Beats the AI-Bear Drum: CHARTS OF THE DAYYes, the bullwhip cracks at the tip, and the body of the whip is moving very fast, but the handle and the wielder are not moving at all. These things are simply not very useful. At least, not yet. And not for the existing firms that are in… -
Trump aide with 'weirdest ideas' is key target for Dems — and GOP won't save him: NBCOne of Donald Trump’s most ubiquitous aides could be left to fend for himself if Democrats win Congress next month, according to a new report. Bill Pulte, the 38-year-old director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has become “a… -
Sister Dana sez, “Happy Halloween to Everybody!”By Sister Dana Van Iquity, Words of Wisdumb from a Fun Nun— Sister Dana sez, “Happy Halloween to Everybody! Or maybe I should say: ‘Happy Hallowed QUEEN’–since it’s our Royal Queer High Holiday!” Sister Dana sez, “I am so sorry to be late… -
'Bum rap': Supreme Court is not in Trump's pocket, Justice Kagan saysSupreme Court Associate Justice Elena Kagan testifies before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government in Washington, DC, on July 14, 2026. WASHINGTON − Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan on Oct. 20… -
Ilhan Omar isn’t above the law. Neither is the Justice Department.Twenty-two days before a national election, with early ballots already being cast, federal agents arrived at the home of a sitting member of Congress with a search warrant. That alone should give every American pause, no matter their party… -
Trump Convenes a Handpicked Panel to Manufacture a Case Against Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fire HerWhen the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in June that Donald Trump couldn’t fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, some optimistic commentators hoped he might move on to projects less financially ruinous than ending the Fed’s independence. No… -
Haywood Regional honors service milestones and employee dedication to local healthcareCARING FOR HAYWOOD COUNTY — Haywood Regional Medical Center recognized and celebrated employees who have devoted years of their careers to caring for patients and serving Haywood County. Haywood Regional Medical Center celebrated the… -
Trump Is Abusing Executive Tools to Target Ilhan Omar, Lisa Cook, TV Networks, and Cassidy Hutchinson for Daring to Stand Up to Him: An Executive Watch RoundupExecutive Watch meticulously tracks and documents presidential abuses of power. Below is our biweekly selection of new entries. Bookmark this page, which contains a chronological scroll of the abuses. And also this post, which sorts and… -
Cook Case Tests The Limits Of Fed IndependenceAuthored by Alexander W. Salter via The Daily Economy, President Trump has renewed his effort to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board. Whether he has a legitimate reason to fire her is another matter. The White House announced a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions