Israeli Knesset election: voter turnout (Oct 27, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 3 · $523 today · $10.2K traded · $6.5K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

5.35Mmedian

4.70M5.90M

Median 5.35MMiddle half 5.26M – 5.50M

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.32M on Oct 20, 5.35M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 4,800,000	98%	▲ 1	97¢	99¢	$1.01	4.6K
At least 4,900,000	97%		94¢	99¢	$1.01	2.6K
At least 5,000,000	96%		92¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 5,100,000	87%	▲ 3	85¢	89¢	$1.12	131
At least 5,200,000	86%	▲ 5	82¢	89¢	$1.12	1.8K
At least 5,250,000	79%	▲ 10	75¢	82¢	$1.22	1.1K
At least 5,300,000	58%	▲ 4	56¢	60¢	$1.67	765
At least 5,400,000	43%	▲ 10	38¢	47¢	$2.13	274
At least 5,500,000	25%	▲ 11	20¢	29¢	$3.45	250
At least 5,600,000	11%	▲ 5	7¢	15¢	$6.67	34.00
At least 5,700,000	8%	▲ 3	4¢	12¢	$8.33
At least 5,800,000	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Knesset

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Rabbis Release special prayer ahead of Israel's Knesset electionsIsrael National News · 18 h agoTzohar Rabbinical Organization releases a special prayer for Israel's elections, emphasizing national unity, shared responsibility, and mutual respect. Rabbis Release special prayer ahead of Israel's Knesset elections
Israeli Knesset Electionsc-span.org · 39 h agoFor the 2026 Israeli elections, what is the "political landscape?" Detail the various parties, leaders, and blocs that are discussed by Mayer. Your gift supports C-SPAN’s mission to provide unedited, unfiltered coverage of government. Make…
Faded Netanyahu Trails Behind Rival Eisenkot in Israel Knesset Pollsdeccanchronicle.com · 44 h agoDimona: In the remote Negev Desert town of Dimona, long a bastion of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, disenchanted voters are going door-to-door campaigning for his top rival Gadi Eisenkot, hoping to bring down the veteran prime minister…
What to know about Israel’s election and the key ballot measures for the midterms: Morning RundownNBC News · 21 h agoMorning Rundown: Israel’s first election since Oct. 7 attacks, key midterm ballot measures to watch, and Chris Brown sentenced over London nightclub brawl Netanyahu’s fate is on the line in Israel’s first elections since the Oct. 7…
7.3 Million eligible voters: Your complete guide to Israel's electionsIsrael National News · 13 h agoAhead of Israel's Knesset elections, find out where and when to vote, what identification to bring, which rides are free, and when results are expected. 7.3 Million eligible voters: Your complete guide to Israel's elections
'I've Never Seen Something Like This': Netanyahu Faces His Biggest Test Yet In 'Extraordinary' ElectionHuffPost · 12 h agoThe midterms will shape our future. HuffPost holds power accountable. Become a member to keep independent journalism strong. The stakes of this election are so high that thousands of Israelis living abroad are flying home to cast their…
Netanyahu lobbying Trump for more election support: reportThe New Arab · 38 h agoIsraeli forces advance in Syria’s Quneitra; Daraa officer killed Dakar Rally 2027 will not be held in Saudi Arabia Protecting minorities: A test for Syria's new political order Inside Israel's deepening ties with Bosnia's Serb separatists…
Netanyahu 'fighting for his political life' in 1st Israeli vote since Oct. 7. He might still surviveCBC · 2 days agoOn the cusp of Israel's first election since Benjamin Netanyahu presided over the most devastating security failure in the country's history, the Israeli prime minister is still hawking himself as the security candidate of choice and…
Will This Election End the Battle Over Drafting Haredi Men Into the Israeli Army?Washington Jewish Week · 2 days agoEliav Breuer | JTA Whether to extend military conscription to haredi men, a longstanding question fueling political tensions in Israel, has boiled over since Hamas launched the current war with Israel with its deadly raids on Oct. 7, 2023…
Are you one of the 2% of readers who support us?The Forward · 4 days ago(JTA) — Whether to extend military conscription to haredi men, a longstanding question fueling political tensions in Israel, has boiled over since Hamas launched the current war with Israel with its deadly raids on Oct. 7, 2023. In some…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Elections Committee for the Knesset

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$10.2K (11,557 contracts)

Today$523

This week$953

At stake$6.5K

In the news3 headlines today, 4 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If at least 4,800,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions