Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 31<1%
- December 314%
Install
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved? (Before 2032)
The odds
70%Before 2032
- Before 203270%▲ 1
- Before 203162%▲ 1
- Before 203055%▲ 1
- Before 202940%
- Before 202816%▼ 2
- Before 20278%
How the odds have moved
Before 2032: 69% on Oct 19, 70% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2032 | 70% | ▲ 1 | 66¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.00 |
| Before 2031 | 62% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 12.00 |
| Before 2030 | 55% | ▲ 1 | 51¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 1.00 |
| Before 2029 | 40% | 36¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 9.00 | |
| Before 2028 | 16% | ▼ 2 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 240 |
| Before 2027 | 8% | 5¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Hodge Conjecture
Search ›- OpenAI Math Release: What’s Real in the 722 AI ManuscriptsOnline Tech Tips is reader-supported. We may earn a commission when you buy through links on our site. Learn more. So does this mean AI now beats human mathematicians or rival AI systems at math? No. It isn’t a new ChatGPT feature you can…
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OpenAI withdrew three AI-written Hodge papers a day after release, over a sign error.The history.md in openai/math shows that on October 7 OpenAI withdrew a paper on the rational Hodge conjecture for products of K3 surfaces, plus two papers that depended on it. It revised 14 others and put Lean coverage at 300 of 719…
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All tech & science ›Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
20.02%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 20.02%Middle half 19.89% – 20.34%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%
- Anthropic8%▲ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Nov 5, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
- December 31, 202756%▼ 3
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
65%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3165%▼ 11
- October 2720%▲ 7
- October 295%
11 more
- October 264%▲ 1
- October 283%
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%
- October 251%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.