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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? (Before Apr 2026)
The odds
Feb 17, 2027even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 202620%▼ 1
- Before Feb 1, 202746%▲ 3
- Before Apr 1, 202763%
- Before Jul 1, 202764%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202766%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202874%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202882%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202985%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 53% on Oct 20, 64% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | <1% | 475.1K | ||||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 80.0K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 148.0K | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 20% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 167.7K |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 46% | ▲ 3 | 45¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 21.1K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 63% | 61¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 10.2K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 64% | ▼ 1 | 61¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 4.7K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 66% | ▲ 2 | 62¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 2.6K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 74% | ▲ 1 | 71¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 995 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 82% | ▼ 1 | 80¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 832 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth
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Sen. Adam Schiff says Pete Hegseth should testify on Starlink slowdown in UkraineSen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should testify before the Senate on the Starlink satellite limitations that disrupted Ukrainian military operations, if… -
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
The historic significance of the WWII-era globe damaged by Pete Hegseth's staffA WWII-era globe – one that once belonged to President Dwight Eisenhower – was damaged after an attempted relocation to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's office. TY SEIDULE: Hi, Juana. Thanks for having me on. SUMMERS: Thanks for being… -
Pete Hegseth has reportedly given DHS permission to test ‘heat ray’ for use at US-Mexico borderThe Pentagon’s Active Denial System shoots energy beam that causes ‘sensation of intense heat on surface of skin’ Pete Hegseth, the US secretary of defense, reportedly signed a memo last month permitting the Department of Homeland Security… -
Pete Hegseth’s staff break priceless historic globe he requested for officeHegseth’s aides, who attempted to move 30in fragile globe themselves, dropped it during relocation, army officials say A priceless pre-second world war globe coveted by the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth for his office in the Pentagon… -
Barack Obama 'Declares War' on Pete HegsethBarack Obama is very concerned about Pete Hegseth's testosterone levels. Or at least, he is concerned about Pete Hegseth's concern about testosterone levels. The former president "declared war" on the War Secretary in a sprawling… -
U.S. military boards go rogue to defy Pete Hegseth’s ban on transgender troopsBy Jillian Butler, Daily Caller News Foundation Military boards are disobeying Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s ban on openly transgender-identifying service members in the U.S. Armed Forces. Directly after this executive order, the… -
Crowd erupts as Obama rips Pete Hegseth’s 'manly' charade: 'You know he’s working his hairFormer US President Barack Obama speaks during a rally before the midterm elections in Cleveland, Ohio, US, October 24, 2026. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton While rallying in Cleveland, Ohio, former President Barack Obama sparked an uproar of… - Pete Hegseth could face impeachment as Democrats plot post-midterm movesDemocrats in the US House of Representatives are pushing to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and may begin the process if the midterm elections prove successful for the party, according to a Friday Wall Street Journal report. “One of…
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Pete Hegseth's team damages Eisenhower's WWII globe after unusual requestWar Secretary Pete Hegseth's bid to display a historic globe once belonging to former President Dwight D. Eisenhower in his office went badly wrong after his team reportedly mishandled the prized artifact. Sources familiar with the… -
Pete Hegseth's office tried to block US military personnel from taking part in NFL's first game in ParisDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth's office tried to stop US military from participating in the NFL's first-ever game in France this Sunday before backing down at the request of the State Department. As first reported by The Washington Post… -
Pete Hegseth’s office loses showdown with State Dept over troops at Paris NFL game: WaPoDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth's inner circle waged a behind-the-scenes fight with another Cabinet department over a marquee sporting event abroad, according to a new report. The Washington Post reported Friday that Hegseth's office tried…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions