María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Install
Will the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
The odds
18%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 9% on Oct 19, 18% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 100 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Graham Act
Search ›-
Trump waives Russian oil and gas sanctions under Graham Act days before provisions were set to take effectOn October 16, 2026, Trump signed an executive order formally waiving the sanctions, restrictions, and duties established under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The order’s language was blunt: “I am hereby… -
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier… -
Peskov Says Kremlin Open to EU Envoy if Focused on Genuine PeaceIn brief: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Sunday, Oct. 25, that Moscow would support the EU naming a diplomatic negotiator provided the envoy genuinely seeks a peaceful resolution, while accusing Brussels of lacking… -
Following Russian strike on park in Nova Vodolaha, Zelenskyy urges against lifting sanctions, calls for application of Graham ActFollowing a Russian strike in Kharkiv region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged the United States to invoke the legislation associated with Lindsey Graham and to refrain from lifting sanctions against Russia until the… -
Trump Putin Fuel Deal Puts First Russian Diesel Tanker on Course for New York [WATCH]The first tanker carrying 40,000 tons of Russian diesel left for New York earlier this week, following President Donald Trump’s agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to add millions of tons of diesel to the global supply. The… -
Relief for India as Trump waives sanctions related to Russian fuel purchase under Lindsey Graham ActWashington DC [US], October 17, 2026: US President Donald Trump has waived several sanctions related to Russian fuel sales that were to take effect under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a month after signing the… - Fact Check: Did Trump say he'll return Alaska to Russia if Republicans lose in the state?WASHINGTON, DC: Ahead of the much-anticipated midterm elections, a rumor began circulating on social media platforms claiming that President Donald Trump said he would return Alaska to Russia if the Republicans lose the election in the…
- Zelensky says Trump could lift more Russia sanctionsUkraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that he feared the United States would lift more sanctions on Russia and that President Donald Trump’s action only “rewards” Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. Trump heightened a battle with…
-
Trump considers 200% tariffs on Ukraine and RussiaUS President Donald Trump has floated the idea of imposing 200% tariffs on Ukraine and Russia, saying that this approach had helped "end" five wars. Source: Trump, quoted by Clash Report Quote: "We ended five wars thanks to tariffs. I… -
Russia hails Trump waiving sanctions as 'historic'Russia on Saturday hailed US President Donald Trump's move to waive new sanctions on it as "historic", as Ukraine worries he is taking Moscow's side in Europe's worst conflict since World War II. Trump signed an executive order Friday that… -
'Unlikely That You Would See Any Trade Agreement Before Midterms': Alexander SlaterSpeaking on the ongoing negotiations between New Delhi and Washington, former Managing Director of the US-India Business Council Alexander Slater analysed the key obstacles delaying a bilateral trade agreement. Slater noted that while both… -
Trump Decides Not To Add New Sanctions on Russia Under Lindsey Graham ActPresident Trump has decided not to impose new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on Russian trading partners under a new law named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham, at least for now. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance▼ 1
Trump out as President before 2027?
5%chance▲ 1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance▼ 1
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%chance▼ 1
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 47
- November 30>99%▲ 16
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions