Largest Company end of October 2026?
66%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA66%▲ 5
- Apple34%▼ 3
- Alphabet<1%
6 more
- Microsoft<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Broadcom<1%
- Amazon<1%
- SpaceX<1%
Install
ChatGPT App Downloads in October (October 2026)
The odds
79.5median
20145
Median 79.5Middle half 77.0 – 82.5
How the odds have moved
Median: 79.4 on Oct 20, 79.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 35 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.9K | |
| Above 50 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 218 | |
| Above 65 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 2.0K | |
| Above 75 | 96% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 3.5K |
| Above 80 | 45% | ▼ 1 | 16¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 3.9K |
| Above 85 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 2.6K | |
| Above 95 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.7K | |
| Above 100 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 5.8K | |
| Above 105 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 969 | |
| Above 110 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 3.2K | |
| Above 115 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 2.5K | |
| Above 130 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, ChatGPT App Downloads
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Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming… -
Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing technology company OpenAI for allegedly failing to protect Texans from the harms of using ChatGPT. Paxton speaks during a news conference with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Houston on… -
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAITEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations… -
Fired OpenAI researchers say independent safety audits aren't going wellIn their first interview since being fired, OpenAI safety researchers Mikita Balesni and Tomek Korbak say they were terminated for prioritizing safety over the short-term interests of the company. Fired OpenAI researchers say independent… -
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT safety claimsThe Collin County lawsuit alleges OpenAI misled users about ChatGPT's risks and failed to protect children from harm OpenAI / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. He… -
OpenAI agents discussed ways to escape their sandbox on public wikiIf OpenAI’s public characterization is substantially accurate, its agents engaged in behavior they were not supposed to perform and escaped relevant controls. The agents subsequently interacted with ... OpenAI agents discussed ways to… -
Texas becomes the latest state to sue OpenAI.Similar to the lawsuits filed by Arizona, West Virginia, Iowa, and several others, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton accuses OpenAI of misleading users about the safety of ChatGPT, allegedly exposing children and other users to a “litany… -
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to… - Texas attorney general sues OpenAI for lying about ChatGPT safety and safeguardsTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s latest lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, claims the company misled consumers about ChatGPT’s reliability, trustworthiness and safety, particularly for teenage users. TEXAS (CN) – Texas…
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OpenAI says it will no longer train its AI models on the live internet, citing “significant risks”Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. “Based on the current state of alignment research, monitoring systems, and the security of internet infrastructure, we believe the responsible approach is to conduct… - Texas sues OpenAI, Sam Altman over product safetyThe state’s attorney general in court documents alleges OpenAI falsely marketed ChatGPT as safe and that it has harmed Texans, including children. 10/23/2026 4:39 PM EDT Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched a lawsuit…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions