Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win? (2026)
KalshiElections › SenateCloses Nov 3, 2027 · $979 today · $27.1K traded · $11.9K at stake · prices read 15 min ago
The odds
94%Fort Bend
Fort Bend94%
Tarrant85%
Collin68%
Denton44%▼ 2
Bastrop38%▼ 2
Bell35%
Brazoria30%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Fort Bend: 91% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Fort Bend
94%
91¢
96¢
$1.04
3.3K
Tarrant
85%
83¢
87¢
$1.15
10.4K
Collin
68%
67¢
68¢
$1.47
9.4K
Denton
44%
▼ 2
43¢
44¢
$2.27
11.7K
Bastrop
38%
▼ 2
34¢
41¢
$2.44
4.1K
Bell
35%
33¢
37¢
$2.70
3.4K
Brazoria
30%
▼ 2
27¢
32¢
$3.13
3.4K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign event in Fort BendFox Business · 4 days agoTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign event in Fort Bend as part of his statewide tour ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign…
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinFox News · 2 days agoDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to…
Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutinyFox News · 4 days agoFox News Texas Senate race heats up as James Talarico faces voter scrutiny Tess Smith and Sarah Gardner join 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Texas voters split in the Senate…
Bush family members back Democrat James Talarico in Texas Senate raceBBC News · 4 days agoFrom left: Neil Bush, George W Bush, and George HW Bush Two members of the Bush family, the Republican political dynasty that counts Texas as its political launchpad, have backed Democrat James Talarico in the hotly fought race for a…
James Talarico fires back at Elon Musk in Texas Senate race feudCNBC · 4 days agoJames Talarico, the Democratic nominee seeking a Senate seat from Texas, fired back Wednesday night at Elon Musk for an X post in which the world's richest man hours earlier had said, "There is something deeply wrong with Talarico." "There…
WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San AntonioFox News · 34 h agoTexas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico speaks at a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign rally in San Antonio. WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign rally in San Antonio Texas Democratic Senate nominee James…
New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat BlueForbes · 2 days agoOn "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Polling senior director Matt Taglia discussed the recent poll that shows Talarico slightly ahead of Paxton in a tight Senate race. New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat Blue On…
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News · 3 days agoFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest…
Texas Senate race: Talarico campaign turns its fire on Elon MuskCNBC · 3 days agoJames Talarico's campaign hit back at Elon Musk Thursday, calling the 2026 election cycle's top spender out for his cash infusion in the Texas Senate race amid an ongoing feud between the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas and the…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions