California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton win? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $196 today · $10K traded · $4.5K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

62%Fresno
  • Fresno62%▼ 9
  • Riverside48%▲ 16
  • Orange45%▲ 1
  • San Bernardino38%▲ 1
  • San Joaquin34%
  • San Luis Obispo11%

How the odds have moved

Fresno: 68% on Oct 20, 62% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 6 PM ETFresno: 70% → 62%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Fresno 62% ▼ 9 61¢ 62¢ $1.61 5.2K
Riverside 48% ▲ 16 43¢ 53¢ $1.89 3.4K
Orange 45% ▲ 1 40¢ 49¢ $2.04 5.7K
San Bernardino 38% ▲ 1 34¢ 42¢ $2.38 4.8K
San Joaquin 34% 34¢ 45¢ $2.22 2.5K
San Luis Obispo 11% 3¢ 15¢ $6.67 104

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California Governor, Steve Hilton

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions