Gangneung National Assembly by-election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 7, 2028 · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

52%People Power Party

People Power Party52%▲ 1
Democratic Party of Korea43%▲ 1
Rebuilding Korea Party3%

How the odds have moved

People Power Party: 52% on Oct 19, 52% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
People Power Party	52%	▲ 1	48¢	56¢	$1.79
Democratic Party of Korea	43%	▲ 1	39¢	47¢	$2.13
Rebuilding Korea Party	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gangneung National Assembly, People Power Party, Rebuilding Korea Party

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Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon Urges People Power Party Unity After AcquittalThe Chosun Daily · 3 days agoMayor criticizes governments real estate policies, opposes judicial impeachment calls Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon Urges People Power Party Unity After Acquittal Mayor criticizes government's real estate policies, opposes judicial impeachment…
Rebuilding Korea Party Hits 9% as Progressives Back Impeachment PushSeoul Economic Daily · 5 days agoSeoul Economic Daily The Rebuilding Korea Party's approval rating has risen above 9% for the first time since the Lee Jae-myung administration took office Analysts attribute the gain to the party's hard-line reform stance, including its…
People Power Party Condemns Mayor Jo's Singing Amid Firefighter DeathThe Chosun Daily · 6 days agoDemocratic Party mayor criticized for appearing at sports event as firefighter died in Bucheon factory fire The People Power Party Gyeonggi Province Party criticized Mayor Jo Yong-ho of Osan, Democratic Party, for singing at a local sports…
People Power Party Launches Housing Task Force, Plans Firefighter Panel in Policy PushSeoul Economic Daily · 6 days agoThe People Power Party launched a task force on young adults' housing, signaled one on firefighters and drafted farmland bills to seize the policy initiative.
Seoul mayor steps forward as conservatives seek unityThe Korea Herald · 2 days agoNational Seoul mayor steps forward as conservatives seek unity Published : Oct. 25, 2026 - 14:58:26 Covers the Seoul Metropolitan Government, focusing on policies and issues affecting people's everyday lives. Previously covered art and…
Rebuilding Korea Party presses Democratic Party to impeach Jo Hee-de in NovemberCHOSUNBIZ · 7 days agoOpposition weighs inquiry and third bloc push as Kim Jun-hyung urges swift impeachment talks on Jo Hee-de The Rebuilding Korea Party on the 21st urged the Democratic Party of Korea to join in impeaching Chief Justice Jo Hee-de. The…
South Korea’s People Power Party Seeks Talks With Democrats to Delay Crypto Taxbloomingbit · 7 days agoSouth Korea’s People Power Party plans to hold talks with the Democratic Party on delaying taxation of virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, scheduled to take effect in January 2027. Digital Asset reported on October 21 that Park Soo-young…
Lydia Ko denies giving golf lessons to first lady amid political controversyThe Korea Times · 29 h agoA CCTV image purportedly showing first lady Kim Hea Kyung at Taereung Golf Club in Seoul, Oct. 20 / Courtesy of office of Rep. Joo Jin-woo of People Power Party Lydia Ko waves after winning the gold medal in the women's individual golf…
Lee's approval rating falls to 35.3 pct after rebound: pollYonhap News Agency · 41 h agoSEOUL, Oct. 26 (Yonhap) -- President Lee Jae Myung's approval rating fell to 35.3 percent after rebounding the previous week, a poll showed Monday. In the poll conducted on 2,517 adults nationwide from last Monday to Friday by Realmeter…
Lee's approval rating falls to 35.3% after rebound: pollThe Korea Times · 41 h agoPresident Lee Jae Myung attends the second plenary meeting of the presidential commission on easing regulations at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, Oct. 23. Yonhap President Lee Jae Myung's approval rating fell to 35.3…
Presidential Office Decides to Delay Crypto Tax AgainSeoul Economic Daily · 3 days agoU.S. Plans to Join CARF Only From 2029 Revision Expected During November Tax Review The presidential office has decided to postpone taxation on cryptocurrency income that had been set to take effect in January next year. Under the revised…
US visitor visa refusal rate for Koreans jumps to nearly 25%The Korea Herald · 32 h agoNational US visitor visa refusal rate for Koreans jumps to nearly 25% Published : Oct. 26, 2026 - 17:58:54 Labor, welfare, health, environment: questions about what shapes everyday life The proportion of South Korean applicants denied US…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNational Election Commission

Trading closesApr 7, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the People Power Party wins the 2027 Gangneung National Assembly by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions