AI bubble burst by...?
27%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20268%▼ 1
- June 30, 202727%▲ 3
Install
First Solar module volume sold in Q1 2027
The odds
3,827median
2,2004,600
Median 3,827Middle half 3,444 – 4,292
How the odds have moved
Median: 3,415 on Nov 4, 3,827 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2400 mw | 97% | ▲ 1 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 9.1K |
| Above 2600 mw | 97% | ▲ 3 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 990 |
| Above 2800 mw | 94% | ▲ 3 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 1.6K |
| Above 3000 mw | 87% | ▲ 2 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.8K |
| Above 3200 mw | 86% | ▲ 4 | 85¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 402 |
| Above 3400 mw | 79% | ▲ 14 | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 402 |
| Above 3600 mw | 63% | 62¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 4.4K | |
| Above 3800 mw | 52% | ▲ 4 | 51¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 6.8K |
| Above 4000 mw | 41% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 3.2K |
| Above 4200 mw | 31% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 6.2K |
| Above 4400 mw | 19% | ▲ 5 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Solar
Search ›- Crews contain solar array transformer fire near St. Cloud sewage plantNovember 6, 2026 / 12:21 PM CST / CBS Minnesota Crews battled a transformer fire in a solar array in St. Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday morning near the city's sewage treatment plant. The St. Cloud Fire Department says the fire broke out…
- Solar farm plan to be reconsidered after challengePlans to build a 126-acre (50 hectare) solar farm in North Yorkshire are to be reconsidered after a High Court judge quashed a previous decision to grant permission. The Woolpots scheme, near the village of Husthwaite, was approved on…
- Solar panels, not sirens: how ‘perverse’ climate zealots killed thousands in NepalNext week, the annual United Nations climate summit will once again misuse a catastrophe to get attention. Starting Monday, the COP31 gathering in Antalya, Turkey, will highlight the devastating ice-and-rock avalanche that tore through…
- Exclusive: RadianX promises solar-powered devices that never need chargingFounder Summit begins Nov. 4, 9:00 a.m. ET. Get your pass savings & deals before it starts. REGISTER HERE. Batteries have transformed electronics, giving us powerful phones, tablets, e-readers, and smart watches. But eventually, every…
- Spacewalkers install final add-on solar array, completing space station power upgradeNovember 5, 2026 / 4:56 PM EST / CBS News Completing a complex upgrade five years in the making, two spacewalking astronauts on Thursday mounted an eighth and final roll-out solar wing on the International Space Station, boosting the lab's…
- Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, First Solar, Nike, JetBlue, Cisco, Cinemark & moreHere are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street.
- Polar crystals as catalytic platforms for solar energy conversionNature Reviews Materials (2026) Cite this article Hadke, S. et al. Emerging chalcogenide thin films for solar energy harvesting devices. Chem. Rev. 122, 10170–10265 (2022). Ye, R. et al. Design of catalysts for selective CO2 hydrogenation…
- 'We got it done!' Spacewalking astronauts finish installing next-gen ISS solar arraysThe first iROSA arrays were deployed in 2021. Just as NASA is preparing to demonstrate "Max Power" on the ground, two astronauts on a spacewalk have provided the International Space Station (ISS) with the same. Expedition 75 flight…
- Northern lights could reach New York and Idaho this weekend as speedy solar wind races toward EarthA colossal coronal hole on the sun is unleashing a stream of high-speed solar wind that could spark impressive auroras Nov. 6-8. The northern lights could put on an impressive display this weekend as a colossal coronal hole on the sun…
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5 more
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343.8median
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Median 343.8Middle half 282.6 – 405
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions