Midterms: which party wins independents? (Nov 3, 2026)
85%Democratic party
- Democratic party85%▲ 1
- Republican party14%▼ 4
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Midterms: which party wins young men? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%
- Republican party16%
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 85% on Oct 20, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 84% | 81¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 1.0K | |
| Republican party | 16% | 13¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 4.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Economic struggles motivate midterm votersCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday… -
US midterms: The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
Key politics at play in the 2026 midtermsCBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 11am Hometown High Q Classics CBS News Texas 9am -
GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round cornerFormer Biden administration official Gevin Reynolds and Republican strategist Brian Robinson analyze the massive early voting turnout in Georgia as political stars head to the swing state. GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round corner… -
Early voting begins in New Jersey for 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Early… -
This decade has been missing its big-impact midtermNew speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds the gavel during the opening session of the 116th Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2019. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption… -
Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 10 Days OutOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Ten days before the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is coming into focus, with Democrats favored to take the House but facing a more competitive fight for the Senate. Democrats have a 95 percent… -
Russia steps up election influence efforts in final stretch of midtermsA pedestrian looks at his smartphone on an embankment with the Kremlin in the background in central Moscow on Oct. 8, 2026. Researchers who track online influence operations say Kremlin-backed groups are renewing tactics they've used to… -
American embassies tighten security as Iran threat warnings intensify ahead of U.S. midterm electionsU.S. embassy officials were on heightened alert around the Middle East as new reports said Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against Americans Friday. A memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton said… -
The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
Epstein files take back seat in midterms but experts say issue has not gone awayOther voter concerns have prevailed but return of Congress likely to see renewed focus on late sex offender’s activities As US voters head to the polls for crucial and fraught midterm elections, some survivors’ advocates in the Jeffrey… -
Zohran Mamdani casts his midterm ballot as first day of early voting kicks off in NYCEarly voting kicked off Saturday in New York with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani casting his ballot at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Early voting kicked off Saturday in New York with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani casting his ballot at the…
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All elections ›Midterms: which party wins Latino men? (Nov 3, 2026)
85%Democratic party
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- Republican party15%▼ 1
Midterms: which party wins older women? (Nov 3, 2026)
93%Democratic party
- Democratic party93%
- Republican party7%▼ 1
Midterms: which party wins white women? (Nov 3, 2026)
75%Democratic party
- Democratic party75%
- Republican party25%▼ 1
Midterms: which party wins white college-educated men? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▼ 1
- Republican party10%
Midterms: which party wins white suburban women? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▲ 1
- Republican party5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.