Midterms: which party wins independents? (Nov 3, 2026)
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%▲ 1
- Republican party16%▼ 2
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Midterms: which party wins Latino men? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
85%Democratic party
- Democratic party85%▲ 1
- Republican party15%
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 78% on Oct 19, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 85% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 1.0K |
| Republican party | 15% | 12¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 215 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms, Latino
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ICE crackdown prompts some Texas Latinos to turn away from TrumpOctober 23, 2026 / 5:00 PM EDT / CBS News McAllen, Texas — Benny Melendez, the owner of a small construction company along this stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border, says he's been forced to take drastic measures to protect his immigrant… -
US midterms: The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
This decade has been missing its big-impact midtermNew speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds the gavel during the opening session of the 116th Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2019. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption… -
How ICE activities in Texas are influencing the Latino vote ahead of midtermsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. How ICE is… -
Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 10 Days OutOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Ten days before the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is coming into focus, with Democrats favored to take the House but facing a more competitive fight for the Senate. Democrats have a 95 percent… -
Russia steps up election influence efforts in final stretch of midtermsA pedestrian looks at his smartphone on an embankment with the Kremlin in the background in central Moscow on Oct. 8, 2026. Researchers who track online influence operations say Kremlin-backed groups are renewing tactics they've used to… -
The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
Texas GOP’s Bet on Latinos May Backfire—How Democrats Could Seal the DealOct 23, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year on the assumption that Latino voters who broke for President Donald Trump in 2024 would stay with the party. With less than two weeks until… -
US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign… -
Epstein files take back seat in midterms but experts say issue has not gone awayOther voter concerns have prevailed but return of Congress likely to see renewed focus on late sex offender’s activities As US voters head to the polls for crucial and fraught midterm elections, some survivors’ advocates in the Jeffrey…
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All elections ›Midterms: which party wins older women? (Nov 3, 2026)
93%Democratic party
- Democratic party93%
- Republican party7%▼ 1
Midterms: which party wins white women? (Nov 3, 2026)
75%Democratic party
- Democratic party75%▲ 1
- Republican party24%▼ 2
Midterms: which party wins young men? (Nov 3, 2026)
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%
- Republican party16%
Midterms: which party wins white college-educated men? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▼ 1
- Republican party10%
Midterms: which party wins white suburban women? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▲ 1
- Republican party5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.