Midterms: which party wins independents? (Nov 3, 2026)
85%Democratic party
- Democratic party85%
- Republican party15%▲ 1
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Midterms: which party wins white women? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
76%Democratic party
- Democratic party76%▲ 2
- Republican party24%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 74% on Oct 20, 76% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 76% | ▲ 2 | 72¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 998 |
| Republican party | 24% | ▼ 2 | 22¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 1.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Economic woes transform the Midwest into a massive midterms battlegroundDemocrats could be poised for a revival in the heartland, as furor over high costs and doubt about President Donald Trump’s willingness to change the nation’s trajectory threaten to loosen the GOP’s grip on working-class voters. A decade… -
Catholic Charities helps Minnesota's unhoused vote ahead of midtermsOctober 24, 2026 / 6:49 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota More than 400,000 Minnesotans have already voted in this midterm election, according to the Secretary of State's office, a big increase from 2022, when around 280,000 were reported during that… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle… -
Obama advocates for Democratic candidates in battleground Ohio midtermsFormer President Barack Obama is on the campaign trail in Cleveland, Ohio, advocating for the state's Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm elections. CNN's Lauren Fox reports. Obama advocates for Democratic candidates in battleground… -
The momentum is with Republicans ahead of midterms, NRCC chairman saysFox News The momentum is with Republicans ahead of midterms, NRCC chairman says NRCC chairman Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., discusses how redistricting is impacting the midterms and previews GOP strategy on ‘The Big Weekend Show.’ -
Trump casts his midterm election ballot early in FloridaPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot in the midterm elections Saturday, saying he voted for all Republicans in Florida before speaking at a Georgia rally. Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived together at their West Palm Beach… -
Iowa farmers continue backing Trump and GOP ahead of midtermsIowa GOP gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn joins ‘The Big Weekend Show’ to discuss diesel prices, farmers’ support for the GOP and his race against Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand. Iowa farmers continue backing Trump and GOP ahead of midterms… -
Economic struggles motivate midterm votersCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday… -
Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama returned to the campaign circuit Saturday during a midterm rally in Ohio for U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton. Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in Cleveland… -
Rising gas prices, cost of living weigh on voters ahead of midtermsCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Rising gas prices, cost… -
Iowa’s cancer problem is scrambling the midtermsAs the debate season kicked off in Iowa’s heated gubernatorial race, one question seemed to animate and, in some ways, unify the candidates. “What are the immediate and specific steps that you would take to combat Iowa’s cancer crisis?”…
Related markets
All elections ›Midterms: which party wins Latino men? (Nov 3, 2026)
85%Democratic party
- Democratic party85%▼ 1
- Republican party13%▼ 3
Midterms: which party wins older women? (Nov 3, 2026)
93%Democratic party
- Democratic party93%▼ 1
- Republican party6%▼ 1
Midterms: which party wins young men? (Nov 3, 2026)
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%
- Republican party16%
Midterms: which party wins white college-educated men? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▼ 1
- Republican party10%
Midterms: which party wins white suburban women? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▼ 1
- Republican party5%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.