Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
The odds
52%Donald Trump
- Donald Trump52%▲ 2
- Bill Gates45%
- Barack Obama42%▼ 1
- Prince Andrew42%
- Bill Clinton42%
- Ehud Barak41%
- Hillary Clinton40%
- Woody Allen39%
- Naomi Campbell38%
- Kevin Spacey32%
- Joe Biden31%
- Stephen Hawking24%
6 more
- Alec Baldwin23%
- Sean Combs14%
- Michael Jackson11%
- Rupert Murdoch11%
- Leonardo DiCaprio9%
- Kamala Harris9%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Donald Trump: 52% on Oct 20, 52% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 52% | ▲ 2 | 50¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 27.2K |
| Bill Gates | 45% | 43¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 10.1K | |
| Barack Obama | 42% | ▼ 1 | 40¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 16.4K |
| Prince Andrew | 42% | 41¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 7.0K | |
| Bill Clinton | 42% | 39¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 14.2K | |
| Ehud Barak | 41% | 39¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 4.4K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 40% | 38¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 18.8K | |
| Woody Allen | 39% | 35¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 8.8K | |
| Naomi Campbell | 38% | 36¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 5.8K | |
| Kevin Spacey | 32% | 30¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 7.7K | |
| Joe Biden | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 15.5K | |
| Stephen Hawking | 24% | 20¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 1.8K | |
| Alec Baldwin | 23% | 21¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 4.6K | |
| Sean Combs | 14% | 11¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 3.2K | |
| Michael Jackson | 11% | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 839 | |
| Rupert Murdoch | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 221 | |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 9% | 6¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 818 | |
| Kamala Harris | 9% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Epstein, Bill Gates, Barack Obama
Search ›-
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama speaks at a Cleveland campaign rally to support Ohio Democrats including former Senator Sherrod Brown. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in Cleveland Former President Barack Obama speaks… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in DetroitFormer President Barack Obama joins Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson at a campaign rally in Detroit. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama rallies with Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson in Detroit Former President Barack Obama… -
Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Democrats at Detroit rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 8:27 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With a little over a week to go before the midterm elections, all eyes are on Michigan as a battleground state. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit Saturday to drum up voter support for… -
Barack Obama rallies Michigan crowd for El-Sayed, saying he’s ‘fighting for real change’Former president speaks to rapturous crowd of thousands in support of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for US Senate Barack Obama told a Detroit crowd on Saturday that Abdul El-Sayed was “fighting for change, real change, that will get money out of… -
Barack Obama to rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan ahead of key US Senate race – US politics liveThe former Democratic president is showing major support in Detroit for the progressive Michigan candidate in final days before US midterm elections Hundreds of Michiganders have gathered outside Cass Technical High School in Detroit… -
Barack Obama Disses Donald Trump's Tacky Gold Renovations"He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory." Former President Barack Obama was in rare form during two rallies in Michigan and Ohio, clowning Donald Trump and his tacky White House renovations. At a… -
US midterm elections 2026: Barack Obama unloads on Donald Trump while stumping for DemocratsUS President Donald Trump has been telling voters to view the midterm elections as if he were on the ballot, and one of his Democratic predecessors has done just that. Ten days out from the elections that will determine control of the… -
As Donald Trump doubles down on Florida, Barack Obama backs David JollyAs President Donald Trump announced plans to come back to Florida to rally for gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds and other candidates he supports, former President Barack Obama issued an unambiguous endorsement of Democratic candidate… -
Bill Gates says to prepare for 20 years of ‘tumultuous’ AI disruptionThe Microsoft cofounder isn’t an AI doomer, but he says it’s still “the most dangerous weapon of all time.” Today, I’m talking to Bill Gates, cofounder and former CEO of Microsoft and chairman of the Gates Foundation. You may have noticed… - Barack Obama Attacks Donald Trump’s Chaos And Cruelty At Ohio RallyPublished 24 Oct 2026, 23:24 UTC Obama called Trump an agent of chaos and cruelty at Cleveland rally. He mocked Trump’s White House renovations, ballrooms, and gold accents. Former President Barack Obama appeared at a campaign rally in…
-
Former US President Barack Obama accuses Trump of corruptionUS President Donald Trump has been telling voters to view the midterm elections as if he were on the ballot, and on Saturday, one of his Democratic predecessors did just that. Ten days out from the elections that will determine control of…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Trump out as President before 2027?
5%chance▲ 1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance▼ 1
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 25, 2026?
38.76%median
38.45%39.15%
Median 38.76%Middle half 38.68% – 38.81%
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
25%December 31
- October 3112%▲ 2
- December 3125%▼ 8
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 47
- November 30>99%▲ 16
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions