Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
The odds
8.35%median
2%14%
Median 8.35%Middle half 7.15% – 8.79%
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.31% on Oct 20, 8.35% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 82% | ▼ 16 | 78¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 273 |
| Above 4% | 82% | ▼ 6 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 411 |
| Above 5% | 82% | ▼ 2 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 202 |
| Above 6% | 81% | ▲ 2 | 76¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 208 |
| Above 7% | 76% | 75¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.9K | |
| Above 8% | 70% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 4.0K |
| Above 9% | 13% | ▼ 5 | 10¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.9K |
| Above 10% | 8% | ▼ 5 | 3¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 2.2K |
| Above 11% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 272 |
| Above 12% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 59.00 |
| Above 13% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 2.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
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Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port MilwaukeeSacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how President Trump's tariffs have affected the flow of goods and impacted the regional economy. Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port Milwaukee Sacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how… -
Small businesses struggling with inflation amid Trump tariffs ahead of midtermsWBZ News Weekend 6pm CBS News Chicago Saturday 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm KDKA News Saturday 6pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Obama rips Trump for tariffs and White House renovations as he touts El-Sayed in DetroitBarack Obama ripped and ridiculed President Trump at a Detroit rally Saturday night — where he vouched for Abdul El-Sayed, despite the lefty Michigan Democratic Senate candidate’s past criticism of him. The former president took on Trump… -
Rubio in India: When Washington’s Tariffs BackfireWashington pressured India to cut Russian oil imports, threatened tariffs, and strained a vital partnership. Now, with trade negotiations stalled and energy security under pressure, Rubio’s visit raises a bigger question: is the US… -
Iowa House candidates divided on tariffs, Iran(The Center Square) - Candidates in Iowa’s second congressional district are divided on tariffs, healthcare and gas prices as the race for control of Congress comes to the heartland. Iowa Rep. Lindsay James, D-Dubuque, and Republican… -
Imports plummet in April as tariffs weigh on tradeUS imports of foreign made goods fell sharply in April compared with the previous month, as tariffs clamped down on global trade. Much of the 16.3 percent drop from March, however, reflected the fact ... Imports plummet in April as tariffs… -
Trump Administration Removes Some Tariffs on Canadian ImportsTrump's trade war has greatly affected this state. He said in a social media post, “Exemptions have been ensured for products important to producers or Maine's agricultural industry such as blueberries, potatoes, apples and seaweed.”… -
Audi Eyes Georgia Plant After Tariff HitAudi may be preparing to shift more production to the United States after tariffs put pressure on its imported lineup, with Georgia emerging as a possible site for a new factory. The move would mark a major change for the Volkswagen luxury… -
Trump’s latest tariffs could be strategically timed for U.S. midtermsCTV News Trump’s latest tariffs could be strategically timed for U.S. midterms Is it a coincidence that Trump is changing the tariffs as Americans are about to head to vote in the midterm elections? Graham Richardson reports. -
Trump claims 250% tariff threat halted India-Pakistan conflictUS President Donald Trump has claimed he averted an all-out war between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan last year by threatening both nations with punitive trade tariffs of up to 250 percent, India Today reports.Addressing a… -
Obama Slams Trump on Iran, Tariffs, and 'Grifter' Presidency at Ohio RallyFormer US President Barack Obama launched a sharp critique of President Donald Trump at a rally in Cleveland, Ohio, ... - Latest News. Find Breaking Headlines, Current and Latest international news at Lokmattimes.com Former US President… -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.