Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%
- R Senate, D House25%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
2028 Democratic Presidential ticket
The odds
8%Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%
- Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez6%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear5%
- Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer3%
- Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear2%
- Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg2%
- Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin2%
- Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear2%
- Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff2%
- Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg2%
- Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly2%
14 more
- Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore2%
- Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro2%
- Gavin Newsom and James Talarico2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg2%
- Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2%
- Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego1%
- Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego1%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly1%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore1%
- Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer1%
How the odds have moved
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Corte: 8% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 21.3K | |
| Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 9.2K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 8.1K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 2.6K | |
| Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | 179 | |
| Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | 2.9K | |
| Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg | 2% | 4¢ | $23.26 | |||
| Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | 21.00 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 378 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 872 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 158 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 514 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 143 | |
| Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 784 | |
| Gavin Newsom and James Talarico | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 253 | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.4K | |
| Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.0K | |
| Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.0K | |
| Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.4K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.0K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 500 | |
| Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | ||
| Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 604 | |
| Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 61.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Democratic Presidential
Search ›-
Kamala Harris Leads Early 2028 Democratic Presidential Field in New PollFormer Vice President Kamala Harris is maintaining a leading position in the early contest for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new poll that underscores her continued influence within the party nearly two years… -
Democratic presidential hopefuls pitch populist economics at New Mexico ‘matanza’U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, left, speaks with U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, right, and human rights activist Samia Assed, middle, during the Fourth in the Nation Matanza Rally on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 at the Anderson Abruzzo Albuquerque… -
Democratic presidential contenders to gather for post-midterm summit in DenverCBS News Democrats to hold post-midterm summit An AI doom scenario that isn't well-known The data risks of personal AI agents Sources: Musk restricted Ukraine's satellite access Trump: U.S. has gotten "nothing" from Ukraine Doctor on… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign… -
Laura: Court packing is a power grab with the veneer of legal justificationFox News host Laura Ingraham discusses Democrats’ calls to expand the Supreme Court on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ Laura: Court packing is a power grab with the veneer of legal justification Fox News host Laura Ingraham discusses Democrats’… -
Californians reveal their pick for Dem president — and it’s not Gavin NewsomCalifornia voters have revealed their top picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary — and Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t even crack the top two, according to a new poll commissioned by the California Post. Golden State voters were asked… - Obama endorses progressive insurgent Angie Nixon for Senate in FloridaObama was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, which has become more Republican since Trump’s ascendance. 10/24/2026 12:10 PM EDT CLEARWATER, Florida — Former President Barack Obama released a one-minute video on…
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Recommended StoriesFormer President Barack Obama endorsed Angie Nixon’s (D-FL) bid to unseat Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) on Saturday, marking his support for the progressive insurgent’s uphill battle in the red state. Obama’s formal backing comes after Nixon… -
Rep. Joaquin Castro says Trump administration "covered up" death of migrant girlMay 22, 2019 / 10:38 PM EDT / CBS News "It's outrageous that another child has died in government custody and that the Trump administration didn't tell anybody," Castro told CBS News Wednesday night, referring to an exclusive report by CBS… -
Hillary Clinton “Continues to Believe” Putin Has Photos of Trump, Relates to Epstein FilesFmr. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, Joshua Qualls (Massachusetts Governor's Press Office), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons On her new podcast High Stakes with liberal political pundit Kara Swisher, former Secretary of State Hillary… - Guest Column: Kamala Harris is coming to Georgia. Here’s why it’s so remarkable.On Oct. 30, former Vice President Kamala Harris will come to Atlanta to headline the Fulton County Democratic Party’s Fulton Forward fundraising dinner. Four days later, Georgians will vote in the midterm elections. There is an obvious…
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The Nuclear Threat Is Roaring Back, Thanks in Part to TrumpThe Nuclear Threat Is Roaring Back, Thanks in Part to Donald Trump Rolling Stone I t’s hard to feel good about the prospects for humanity when someone tells you there’s a 40 percent chance, more or less, that AI bots will kill us all…
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All president 2028 ›Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom11%▲ 1
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- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
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- James Talarico2%
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- Donald Trump Jr.1%
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%▲ 1
- Gavin Newsom17%
- Jon Ossoff16%
50 more
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio16%▲ 1
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
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- Ted Cruz2%
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Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.2median
46.557.5
Median 48.2Middle half 47.2 – 50.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.