Median: 95.8 on Oct 20, 96.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 65 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 69 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 73 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 77 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 32.00 | |
| Above 81 | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 1.6K | |
| Above 85 | 94% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 200 | |
| Above 89 | 94% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 877 | |
| Above 93 | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 2.6K | |
| Above 95 | 78% | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 1.3K | |
| Above 97 | 41% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 678 |
| Above 99 | 8% | ▼ 14 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.5K |
| Above 101 | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 123 | |
| Above 105 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 9.4K | |
| Above 109 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Above 113 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Above 117 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $106.69.
Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions