Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
22%chance▼ 1
Install
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh? (2027)
The odds
34%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20265%
- Before Dec 1, 202620%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202731%▲ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202734%▼ 11
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 6% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 18, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 51.9K | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 52.1K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 55.5K | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 20% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 70.9K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 31% | ▲ 2 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 517.5K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 34% | ▼ 11 | 31¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 3.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kevin Warsh
Search ›-
Two Cheers For Kevin Warsh's "Quiet" FedU.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Dhitaraht Dhanarahtsombat) Two Cheers For Kevin… -
Breitbart Business Digest: Wall Street Is Daring Kevin Warsh to Raise Interest RatesA Fed Hike Could Break the Market’s Fedamentalism Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh appeared at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok and reiterated his refusal to tell investors what the Fed plans to do… -
The Latest Inflation Data Spells Bad News for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Stock MarketThe CPI rose at an annualized rate of 3.4% in August, prompting the Fed to hike rates for the first time in three years at its September meeting. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh also warned more rate increases might be on the way if inflation… -
Kevin Warsh's Fed May Not Cut Rates Soon. That's Why This Dividend Stock Belongs in Your Portfolio.Recent FedWatch forecasts point to an 89% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting. If interest rates stay high, well-established dividend stocks like AbbVie could be good investments. AbbVie is a Dividend King and has delivered… -
Is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh About To Pop CoreWeave's Bubble?CoreWeave (CRWV -0.44%) has taken center stage in the AI bubble debate. Concerns about CoreWeave brought down the broader chip and tech sectors last week, and the stock could continue to serve as an avatar for the broader AI sector as… -
Jeffrey Gundlach Says Forget AI. Kevin Warsh Just Became Wall Street's Biggest Story."This is the first day in a long time AI is not the top story. It is the Fed," Gundlach wrote on X following the June 17 decision. The declaration came as major stock indexes fell approximately 1%, reflecting a market suddenly forced to… -
Fed Minutes Show Another Rate Hike Is Likely This Year as Kevin Warsh's FOMC Battles Persistent Inflation. Here's Why That Signal Matters for Stocks and Bonds Heading Into Year-End.According to the latest meeting minutes released Oct. 7 by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Kevin Warsh and the other central bankers are planning to hike interest rates again in 2026. The FOMC has two more… -
3 Words From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Suggest the Worst Is Yet to Come for Wall StreetLast week, Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bull market celebrated its fourth anniversary. Earlier this month, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.09%) and tech-powered Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.15%) both catapulted to new… -
AI and jobs: The hot new topic for central bankersBEIJING — Artificial intelligence is breaking into the realm of central bankers. High-level gatherings this month in Asia, including the International Monetary Fund-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok last week and the Bund Summit this… -
Traders bet on October interest-rate hold after Kevin Warsh is tight-lipped at conferenceFederal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stayed mum Friday on the path for interest rates, even after hot inflation data this week – which traders took as a sign officials will hold rates steady this month. Speaking at an economic conference in… -
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Says AI Investment Is Raising Costs Before Productivity Gains Begin to ArriveFed Chair Kevin Warsh warns that AI investment is adding inflation pressure before productivity gains arrive, as central banks reassess borrowing costs. The global artificial intelligence investment boom is creating an unexpected challenge… -
Analysis: Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us allTraders are betting overwhelmingly that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates when it meets later this month. But that judgment rests in part on assumptions about how the Fed communicates that may no longer hold under its new…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.