Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (Before Nov 7, 2028)

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 6, 2028 · $11.5K traded · $6.4K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

31%Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg31%
Andy Beshear20%
Gavin Newsom16%
J.B. Pritzker5%
Wes Moore3%
Josh Shapiro3%▼ 1
Kamala Harris3%
Jon Ossoff2%▼ 1
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%

How the odds have moved

Pete Buttigieg: 31% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Pete Buttigieg	31%		28¢	34¢	$2.94	15.0K
Andy Beshear	20%		17¢	22¢	$4.55	13.8K
Gavin Newsom	16%		12¢	19¢	$5.26	18.3K
J.B. Pritzker	5%		5¢	5¢	$19.61	6.4K
Wes Moore	3%		3¢	3¢	$32.26	4.6K
Josh Shapiro	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$25.64	8.6K
Kamala Harris	3%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	15.8K
Jon Ossoff	2%	▼ 1	1¢	4¢	$26.32	4.0K
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	1%		0¢	2¢	$50.00	4.0K
Gretchen Whitmer	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Democrat, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear

Search ›

Gavin Newsom gets brutal exit report card as 62% of California voters are begging for a new direction: pollCalifornia Post · 4 days agoGavin Newsom is leaving Sacramento with a damning report card. A new poll finds 62% of California registered voters rate his tenure fair or poor, with voters panning his handling of homelessness, housing, taxes, state spending and AI — and…
Gavin Newsom’s $14.3B tax ‘gift’ to Californians should haunt his White House ambitionsCalifornia Post · 4 days agoYou earn it, they spend it. That could be the unofficial motto of government in California. How (and how much) can they tax you, and how fast? The California Tax Foundation has an answer: In the last legislative session, Gov. Gavin Newsom…
Gavin Newsom’s legislative minions just got a lesson in constitutional supremacyFox News · 5 days agoFox News contributor Joe Concha reacts to California Gov. Gavin Newsom's political aspirations. Newsom describes himself as a 'disrupter' in a new Vanity Fair piece amid speculation about his 2028 ambitions. It is no surprise that a…
Gavin Newsom’s 24/7 social media machineCalMatters · 3 days agoThese days you can find Gov. Gavin Newsom on just about any media platform. With less than three months until he finishes his final term as California governor, you can catch Newsom on X picking fights with right-wing media, posting on…
Pete Buttigieg to campaign with Pia Dandiya in CD 22@Fla_Pol · 3 days agoButtigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary under President Joe Biden, will appear with Dandiya in Plantation for a canvassing launch. Dandiya is running in the battleground Florida’s 22nd Congressional District against Republican…
Do-Nothing Republicans Did Nothing So Now Gavin Newsom Controls Keys To Most Critical Rulesdailycaller · 3 days agoRepublicans might have accidentally given Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California legislature keys that will end up shaping some of the most important rules involving AI. Republicans might have accidentally given…
Steve Hilton makes his pitch to replace Gavin Newsom as California's governorKTVU FOX 2 San Francisco · 4 days agoKTVU Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra go head to head in the California governor's race to replace Gavin Newsom. Hilton sat down for an interview to talk about how he plans to help Californians save money.
CalMatters Commentary: Gavin Newsom’s legacy: Big promises undercut by costly mismanagementDailyRepublic.com · 4 days agoWhatever accomplishments Gavin Newsom might claim from his eight years as governor, he will also leave a legacy of mismanagement that has squandered untold billions of taxpayers’ dollars. There is a running thread in that record –…
Why are California state workers so mad at Gavin Newsom? Spoiler alert: Pay cutsCalMatters · 4 days agoCalifornia state workers say they’re tired of governors balancing the budget “on their backs” and are beginning a statewide state strike today. The state workers who are planning the first-ever statewide walkout in 44 years this week once…
Calmatters: Why Are California State Workers So Mad At Gavin Newsom? Spoiler Alert: Pay CutsSFGATE · 4 days agoThe state workers who are planning the first-ever statewide walkout in 44 years this week once were on much better terms with their boss, Gov. Gavin Newsom. SEIU Local 1000, state government's largest union, kicked in one of the single…
Pete Buttigieg rallies for Virginia Dems: ‘We have the right kind of leaders to carry us forward’Dogwood · 5 days agoThe former Democratic presidential candidate and Biden administration Cabinet secretary urged voters to help Democrats in three competitive races in Virginia. Excited voters crowded into the Henrico Theatre outside Richmond on Oct. 19 to…
Pete Buttigieg rallies with Taylor, Luria, PerrielloVirginia Scope · 5 days agoPete Buttigieg, a former U.S. transportation secretary and presidential candidate, took the stage at the Henrico Theatre on Monday to rally Virginia Democrats ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Joining Buttigieg were 1st District…

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Elections › President 2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes) (Before Nov 1, 2028)

27%Rahm Emanuel

Rahm Emanuel27%
Ro Khanna12%
Pete Buttigieg10%

30 more

Gavin Newsom8%
Kamala Harris7%
Andy Beshear7%
Cory Booker2%
Mitch Landrieu2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1%
Jon Ossoff1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Mark Kelly1%
James Talarico1%
Wes Moore1%
Josh Shapiro1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Jasmine Crockett1%
Graham Platner1%
Jon Stewart1%
Michelle Obama1%
Beto O'Rourke1%
Stephen A. Smith1%
Mark Cuban1%
Chris Murphy1%
Ruben Gallego1%
Elissa Slotkin1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Andrew Yang1%
Roy Cooper1%
Jared Polis1%
Amy Klobuchar1%
Elizabeth Warren1%
Gina Raimondo<1%

Elections › President 2028

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

66%Democrats Sweep

Democrats Sweep66%
R Senate, D House25%
Republicans Sweep7%

2 more

D Senate, R House1%
Other<1%

Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%▲ 1
Gavin Newsom17%
Jon Ossoff16%

50 more

Kamala Harris7%
Josh Shapiro5%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Andy Beshear3%
James Talarico3%
Wes Moore2%
Raphael Warnock2%
Mark Kelly2%
Rahm Emanuel2%
Bernie Sanders1%
Ro Khanna1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
J.B. Pritzker1%
Chelsea Clinton1%
Cory Booker1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Michelle Obama1%
Jon Stewart1%
Roy Cooper<1%
Chris Murphy<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Mark Cuban<1%
Barack Obama<1%
Hillary Clinton<1%
Hunter Biden<1%
Chris Van Hollen<1%
Stephen A. Smith<1%
Gina Raimondo<1%
Zohran Mamdani<1%
Jared Polis<1%
Phil Murphy<1%
Jasmine Crockett<1%
Abigail Spanberger<1%
Hakeem Jeffries<1%
Elissa Slotkin<1%
Josh Stein<1%
Mitch Landrieu<1%
LeBron James<1%
Tim Walz<1%
John Fetterman<1%
Liz Cheney<1%
George Clooney<1%
MrBeast<1%
Oprah Winfrey<1%
Andrew Yang<1%
Beto O’Rourke<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Graham Platner<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Alex Padilla<1%

Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

21%JD Vance

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
Gavin Newsom11%▲ 1

51 more

Jon Ossoff9%
Marco Rubio9%
Kamala Harris4%
Josh Shapiro3%
Pete Buttigieg3%
Ron DeSantis2%▼ 1
Andy Beshear2%
James Talarico2%
Donald Trump1%
Tucker Carlson1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Mark Kelly1%
Raphael Warnock1%
Wes Moore1%
Thomas Massie1%
Ro Khanna1%
JB Pritzker1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Donald Trump Jr.1%
Ted Cruz1%
Rahm Emanuel1%
Gretchen Whitmer<1%
Jamie Dimon<1%
Glenn Youngkin<1%
Tulsi Gabbard<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
Elon Musk<1%
Michelle Obama<1%
Stephen Smith<1%
Nikki Haley<1%
Tim Walz<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
LeBron James<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Zohran Mamdani<1%
Eric Trump<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Jalen Brunson<1%
Abigail Spanberger<1%
Hakeem Jeffries<1%
Elissa Slotkin<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Josh Stein<1%
Alex Padilla<1%
Candace Owens<1%
Tim Scott<1%
Mike Johnson<1%
Doug Burgum<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
John N. Kennedy<1%
Rick Scott<1%

Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

44%J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance44%
Marco Rubio16%▲ 1
Ron DeSantis3%

40 more

Tucker Carlson3%
Ted Cruz2%
Donald Trump2%
Donald Trump Jr.2%
Ivanka Trump1%
Thomas Massie1%
Brian Kemp1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
Josh Hawley<1%
Rand Paul<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Glenn Youngkin<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
Katie Britt<1%
Candace Owens<1%
Eric Trump<1%
Tulsi Gabbard<1%
Nikki Haley<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
Byron Donalds<1%
Elise Stefanik<1%
Elon Musk<1%
Kristi Noem<1%
Mike Pence<1%
Steve Bannon<1%
Joe Kent<1%
Doug Burgum<1%
John N. Kennedy<1%
John McEntee<1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
Matt Gaetz<1%
John Thune<1%
Tom Brady<1%
Erika Kirk<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Tim Scott<1%
Mike Johnson<1%
Rick Scott<1%

Elections › President 2028

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

48.2median

46.557.5

Median 48.2Middle half 47.2 – 50.4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onperson, the Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia

Trading closesNov 6, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11.5K (93,250 contracts)

At stake$6.4K

In the news197 headlines today, 2,402 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.