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99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 1
- November 3099%▲ 1
- December 3199%▲ 14
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Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026
The odds
825,542median
770,000920,000
Median 825,542Middle half 810,000 – 837,647
How the odds have moved
Median: 824,051 on Oct 20, 825,542 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 780 thousand | 93% | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 510 | |
| Above 790 thousand | 91% | 89¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 143 | |
| Above 800 thousand | 86% | ▲ 2 | 84¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.3K |
| Above 810 thousand | 75% | 79¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 931 | |
| Above 820 thousand | 73% | 68¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 801 | |
| Above 830 thousand | 32% | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 383 | |
| Above 840 thousand | 23% | 19¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 2.3K | |
| Above 850 thousand | 14% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 293 |
| Above 860 thousand | 12% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | |
| Above 870 thousand | 10% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 6.00 |
| Above 880 thousand | 10% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 300 |
| Above 890 thousand | 8% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.6K |
| Above 900 thousand | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 3.7K |
| Above 910 thousand | 7% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 3.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Carvana
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A Sleepy Arizona Dealership Is Now Stellantis’ Top Dealer, Thanks to CarvanaA small Arizona dealership that once moved as many as 50 new vehicles a month has seen sales jump by 1,900 percent, Auto Wire reported Friday, October 23. Stellantis owns Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram. A car dealership in Casa Grande, a… -
The Used Car Market Is Flashing Strength. But Carvana Keeps Sliding.Used car sales are reviving. Wall Street is bullish. But Carvana stock remains in a slumber ahead of earnings next week. The post The Used Car Market Is Flashing Strength. But Carvana Keeps Sliding. appeared first on Investor's Business… -
Carvana Expands Same-Day Vehicle Delivery In Greater Jacksonville AreaCarvana announced the expansion of same-day vehicle delivery for customers in the greater Jacksonville area. Select local customers can now receive their vehicle as soon as the same day they place an... Carvana announced the expansion of… -
Carvana’s Reckoning Day on Oct. 28: Can Used-Car King Overcome Margin Compression and Defy Extreme Premium Valuation?Carvana (NYSE:CVNA | CVNA Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Shares are down 31.51% year to date. This report will show whether record volume can offset a persistent margin pressure. Record Volume Meets… -
Carvana Turned a 30-Car Dealership Into Stellantis's Top Seller. Here's What That Actually Proves.Every ASOTU show, from the daily news to live event sessions Our daily show, where Paul and Kyle connect the headlines to what they mean for your store Beyond-the-business-card talks with the people running dealerships and the tech behind… -
From 35 Cars to Nearly 1,000 a Month: How Carvana Turned a Sleepy Arizona Dodge Store Into Stellantis’s No. 1 DealerA small Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep-Ram store in Casa Grande, Arizona, used to sell about 30 to 50 new vehicles a month. Now it sells close to 1,000, which makes it the top-selling Stellantis dealership in America. Many of those cars ship to… -
Retail on the Record recap: Cascade Auto Group Managing Partner Michelle Primm talks Subaru, Audi, CarvanaMichelle Primm, managing partner of Cascade Auto Group in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, was the guest on the Oct. 20 "Retail on the Record" video podcast. Automotive News will announce the category winners and the overall Best Dealership To Work… -
Carvana (CVNA) Projected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on WednesdayCheck Out Our Latest Stock Analysis on CVNA Carvana Co NYSE: CVNA is an online automotive retailer that sells used vehicles through its digital platform. Customers can browse vehicles, review detailed descriptions and vehicle history… - Net Worth Advisory Group Sells 10,190 Shares of Carvana Co. $CVNAPosted by Defense World Staff on Oct 21st, 2026 Read Our Latest Stock Analysis on CVNA Carvana Co (NYSE: CVNA) is an online automotive retailer that sells used vehicles through its digital platform. Customers can browse vehicles, review…
- Dealership denies woman car because of her credit. Then she tries Carvana: ‘I have bought 2 cars from Carvana, never had a problem’Having bad credit makes life significantly more difficult. It can be hard to rent an apartment, make big purchases that require a loan, or even get certain jobs. One of the most common struggles for people with a low credit score is buying…
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Carvana and Phoenix Rising FC Extend Partnership Entering 10th Season TogetherMulti-year renewal reinforces Carvana's continued investment in the growth of professional and youth soccer throughout Arizona "Phoenix Rising has been one of our most meaningful hometown partnerships, and we're proud to continue… -
Is Carvana Stock’s Drop A Chance To Buy?Carvana’s Added Capacity Is Already Selling More Cars The company as a whole followed a similar path. Retail units sold increased 38% in fiscal Q2 2026, even as management said the broader industry declined about 4% from a year earlier. By…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions