California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (Nov 3, 2026)
4.18%median
-2%25%
Median 4.18%
Install
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes) (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
26%Yes, ≥1%
-2%25%
How the odds have moved
Yes, ≥1%: 26% on Oct 20, 26% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, ≥1% | 26% | 23¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 10.6K | |
| Yes, ≥4% | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.0K | |
| Yes, ≥7% | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.0K | |
| Yes, ≥10% | 5% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.7K | |
| Yes, ≥13% | 5% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 2.0K | |
| Yes, ≥16% | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.9K | |
| Yes, ≥19% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.3K |
| Yes, ≥22% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California Proposition
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California's Proposition 5 Seeks to Discourage Recall ElectionsIn our ongoing series examining the propositions facing California voters on the November 2026 ballot (links to earlier posts are at the bottom of this post), we now reach Proposition 5. Said proposition would, if passed, severely modify… -
California's Proposition 40: What voters need to know about the billionaire wealth taxTo learn more about the CNBC CFO Council, visit cnbccouncils.com/cfo Proposition 40, California's billionaire tax proposal, would authorize a one-time, 5% "wealth tax" on residents of the state with a net worth above $1 billion. The Nov. 3… -
California's Proposition 2: A Rainy Day Fund Increase, or Making a Shell Game the State's Umbrella?This seems to contradict the entire spending limit idea, don’t you think? At present, the rainy day fund requires a minimum balance of 10 percent of the General Fund on which the state budget is based. Enter Proposition 2. Its core agenda… -
Richard Pan, Kevin Kiley make final push in competitive California congressional raceOctober 26, 2026 / 5:40 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento Democrat Richard Pan and Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley are making their final pitches to voters in California's newly redrawn 6th Congressional District. The contest has drawn national… -
San Diego voting guide: How to vote in the 2026 midterm elections, key dates and moreWe are a little more than a week away from the midterm election. The first wave of voting centers opened, for in-person voting, Saturday morning across San Diego County. NBC 7’s M.G. Perez shows us how the county is ramping up its… -
McGeorge law students break down California ballot measures to help voters make informed decisionsOctober 21, 2026 / 10:43 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento With Election Day approaching, California voters are facing a crowded ballot and competing claims about what the state's propositions would do. A group of University of the Pacific students… -
Can a Grown Man Vote as Sydney Sweeney? Ad Shows How Rigged California Voting Really IsCould a grown man who looks nothing like celebrity Sydney Sweeney vote under her name in California? A new ad by the Proposition 39 campaign dramatizes that scenario to spotlight the state’s lack of a voter ID requirement, encouraging… -
California, Texas lead big bond referendum slateState and local voters will face an estimated $162.4 billion of bond referendums, led by California and Texas, according to a Bond Buyer analysis. Voters in 16 states will vote on tax questions affecting state and local government income… -
From housing initiatives to a billionaire tax: A guide to key California propositionsProposition 40 is highly debated among voters and has even spurred Proposition 41 and 42, which attempt to directly block the billionaire tax on California residents. When California voters fill out their ballots on or prior to Nov. 3… -
Proposition 44 — Threatens California Community Clinics and Immigrant HealthcareLearn how California's Proposition 44 threatens nonprofit community health clinics, immigrant healthcare safety nets, and vital multilingual services. Proposition 44 â Threatens California Community Clinics and Immigrant Healthcare As… -
Voting-Related Measures on November Ballots Include a Voter ID Push Targeting Mail-In BallotsAdvocates for stricter voter ID laws are pushing new measures in some states to require driver's license or partial Social Security numbers on mail-in ballots Voting-Related Measures on November Ballots Include a Voter ID Push Targeting… -
California's proposition 40 aims to fund health care via wealth taxProposition 40 will appear on the November ballot and if passed, would impose a one-time tax on taxpayers with a net worth over $1 billion. The tax would apply to 200 Californians who exceed the required net worth. It would be due in 2027…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions