CA-04 House winner? (2026)
74%Mike Thompson
- Mike Thompson74%▼ 2
- Eric Jones26%▲ 1
Install
CA-40 House winner? (2026)
The odds
55%Ken Calvert
- Ken Calvert55%▲ 1
- Young Kim44%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Ken Calvert: 57% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Calvert | 55% | ▲ 1 | 54¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 10.9K |
| Young Kim | 44% | ▼ 1 | 42¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 4.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Ken Calvert, Young Kim
Search ›-
Mailers touting Young Kim as ‘100% pro-Trump’ are linked to a group supporting Ken Calvert in the CA-40 race“Young Kim, thank you,” President Donald Trump says on a recent mailer sent to voters in California’s 40th Congressional District. “Young Kim 100% pro-Trump,” boasts another mailer. Images on the mailers appear to be taken from an April TV… -
Rep. Young Kim Convenes Roundtable to Accelerate Adoption of Next-Generation Firefighting TechnologiesOct 13, 2026 | Press Releases ORANGE COUNTY, CA – Today, Congresswoman Young Kim (CA-40) convened a roundtable of federal, state, and local firefighting agencies, wildfire innovation and policy partners, and wildfire technology companies… - Press Release: Rep. Young Kim Convenes Roundtable on Wildfire Technology AdoptionYoung Kim convened fire agencies and technology firms to discuss speeding wildfire technology adoption and reducing deployment barriers. Roundtable on wildfire technology: Rep. Young Kim said she convened federal, state and local…
- Fundraising Update: Representative Young Kim just disclosed $967.4K of new fundraisingRepresentative Young Kim just disclosed $967.4K of fundraising in a Q3 FEC disclosure filed on October 15th, 2026. This is the 115th most from all Q3 reports we have seen from politicians so far this year. 83.7% came from individual…
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We asked Orange County congressional candidates about their favorite books. Here’s what they had to sayCandidates don’t often have a lot of downtime in the midst of an election. But when they do, what are they picking up to read? The Southern California News Group asked the candidates vying to represent you several questions in order to… -
Indian-American Donors Give Republicans 3 Times More Than Democrats In 2026 MidtermsIndian-American political donors are directing significantly more money to Republicans than Democrats in the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle, with federal campaign finance records showing an almost three-to-one gap in contributions from a… -
Canyon Lake Mayor Jeremy Smith delivers State of the City AddressCanyon Lake Mayor Jeremy Smith delivered the State of the City Address Thursday at the Canyon Lake Lodge, bringing together community leaders, business partners, elected officials, and representatives from neighboring cities to celebrate… -
Races in redrawn districts could determine control of HouseSeveral contests for the U.S. House in California could determine the partisan control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. In November 2025, California voters approved Proposition 50, a measure to redraw congressional districts in… -
U.S. lawmakers told of Pakistan’s religious rights violationsReligious freedom advocates have urged U.S. lawmakers to push Pakistan to end the abduction, forced religious conversion and marriage of minority girls, warning that weak law enforcement and judicial failures leave Christian and other… -
In California’s 40th Congressional District, it’s a battle between Ken Calvert and Young KimAlthough it’s been a volatile and expensive battle between Republicans Ken Calvert and Young Kim as they compete for California’s 40th Congressional District, they tend to agree, at least somewhat, on several issues they see facing their… -
ANCA endorses congressional allies; grades members of Congress on pro-Armenian prioritiesThe ANCA has endorsed sixty-four candidates for the U.S. Senate and House this cycle. Each endorsement is backed by a detailed, merit-based Report Card. In a handful of races, the ANCA is mobilizing Armenian American voters where the… -
GOP Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Protect US Intellectual Property From CCPTwo Republican lawmakers have introduced legislation they say will help protect U.S. intellectual property (IP) from the Chinese communist regime and other adversaries. The Protecting American Innovation and Development (PAID) Act is meant…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.