CA-04 House winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $143 today · $25.7K traded · $9.6K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

75%Mike Thompson
  • Mike Thompson75%▼ 1
  • Eric Jones25%▲ 6

How the odds have moved

Mike Thompson: 75% on Oct 20, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Mike Thompson 75% ▼ 1 75¢ 76¢ $1.32 27.3K
Eric Jones 25% ▲ 6 25¢ 26¢ $3.85 19.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: CA- House, Mike Thompson, Eric Jones

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  • Rep. Mike Thompson’s Napa office receives threatening letter containing white powderThe Press Democrat · 3 days agoRep. Mike Thompson was one of more than three dozen members of Congress across the nation to receive threatening letters containing unidentified white powder, his office revealed Monday afternoon. The envelope was mailed to Thompson’s…
  • Eric Jones on fighting corruption, promising accountability in District 4 racecapradio.org · 7 days agoEric Jones is one of two Democrats running for election in California's 4th Congressional District. California’s Congressional District 4 was significantly redrawn by Prop. 50, with almost half the seat being new territory. The district…
  • Rep. Mike Thompson touts his track record in Congress as he runs for reelection in District 4capradio.org · 8 days agoRep. Mike Thompson is running for re-election in California's 4th Congressional District. Courtesy of the Mike Thompson Campaign California is home to the most House seats in Congress and last year Prop. 50 dramatically changed what…
  • Letter: Money can't buy my voteThe Napa Valley Register · 5 days agoEric Jones has mounted an expensive and divisive campaign against Mike Thompson to buy a congressional seat. According to the Press Democrat, the 4th district primary was the second most expensive Congressional primary in California in…
  • Mike Thompson and Eric Jones discuss varying issues at District 4 congressional candidate forumThe California Aggie · 9 days agoCandidates shared top priorities in office and answered voter questions “The American dream is dying,”Jones said. “Lobbyists control our democracy, and affordability is crushing the next generation. Political corruption and corporate greed…
  • It took an act of Congress, but Eric Jones got his Facebook page backTHE WELLSVILLE SUN · 8 days agoHome » It took an act of Congress, but Eric Jones got his Facebook page back Eric Jones had never met his representative in Congress, Nick Langworthy, but he reached out to him when he lost his Facebook page. Losing the page came at the…
  • PHOTOS: 'No Kings' rally in Napa encourages people to get out and voteThe Napa Valley Register · 5 days agoA surprise visit by U.S. Senator Adam Schiff highlighted the latest 'No Kings' rally in Napa on Saturday afternoon, a rally that was as focused on encouraging people to vote as it was voicing opposition to President Trump and his…
  • ICE, surveillance concerns dominate American Canyon town hallThe Napa Valley Register · 6 days agoFrom left to right, American Canyon Mayor Pierre Washington, Rep. Mike Thompson and Napa County Supervisor Belia Ramos address a town hall audience on Oct. 16, 2026. Rep. Mike Thompson addresses the audience at a town hall at American…
  • Letter: Bonnie Schoch has experience and gritThe Napa Valley Register · 2 days agoOver the years, I have seen Bonnie respond to the joys and challenges of life with grit and grace. When faced with difficulty, Bonnie draws on her inner strength and positive spirit. She is determined, persevering, thoughtful, and…
  • Bill to Extend Medicare Benefits for Hearing Introduced in HouseThe Hearing Review · 3 days agoOct 20, 2026 | Legislation, Medicare & Insurance | 0 | Seeking to add hearing benefits to Medicare, Rep Mike Thompson (D-CA) has been tapped to lead the Medicare Dental, Vision, and Hearing Benefit Act in the next Congress, following an…
  • Jones outpaces Thompson in campaign fundraisingThe Napa Valley Register · 6 days agoEric Jones has poured $10 million of his own money into his campaign to unseat longtime Rep. Mike Thompson, giving the challenger a substantial fundraising advantage in the race for California's 4th Congressional District. Jones raised…
  • Thompson, Jones Q3 finanical reports released by FECDavisEnterprise.com · 7 days agoLeft: Rep. Mike Thompson, Right: Eric Jones The Federal Election Commission has released Quarter 3 financial reports for the Fourth District Congressional Race between incumbent Mike Thompson (D - St. Helena) and Eric Jones, also a…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.