María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 91
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Install
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
The odds
27%Pete Hegseth
- Pete Hegseth27%▼ 1
- Susie Wiles20%▼ 2
- Howard Lutnick14%▼ 1
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.6%▼ 1
- Markwayne Mullin4%▼ 1
- Scott Bessent3%
- Brooke Rollins3%
- Marco Rubio2%▲ 1
- Doug Burgum2%
- Kelly Loeffler2%
- Scott Turner2%
- Sean Duffy2%
13 more
- Chris Wright2%
- Linda McMahon2%
- Doug Collins2%
- Michael Kratsios2%
- John Ratcliffe2%
- Jamieson Greer2%
- Lee Zeldin1%
- Todd Blanche1%
- Jay Clayton1%
- Keith Sonderling1%
- Mike Waltz1%▼ 1
- Russell Vought1%
- Christopher Phelan1%
How the odds have moved
Pete Hegseth: 16% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 27% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 79.6K |
| Susie Wiles | 20% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 35.4K |
| Howard Lutnick | 14% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 23.3K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 32.1K |
| Markwayne Mullin | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 25.9K |
| Scott Bessent | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 7.6K | |
| Brooke Rollins | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 7.7K | |
| Marco Rubio | 2% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | $33.33 | 10.8K | |
| Doug Burgum | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 9.5K | |
| Kelly Loeffler | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.1K | |
| Scott Turner | 2% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 3.8K | ||
| Sean Duffy | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.6K | |
| Chris Wright | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 12.1K | |
| Linda McMahon | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.2K | |
| Doug Collins | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 8.2K | |
| Michael Kratsios | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.0K | |
| John Ratcliffe | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.5K | |
| Jamieson Greer | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.6K | |
| Lee Zeldin | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.1K | ||
| Todd Blanche | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 370 | ||
| Jay Clayton | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 517 | ||
| Keith Sonderling | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 54.00 | ||
| Mike Waltz | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.9K | |
| Russell Vought | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.0K | ||
| Christopher Phelan | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 148 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump's Cabinet, Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles
Search ›-
Politico Corrects Susie Wiles Story After Trump Official's ThreatPolitico corrected a report from last week on the role that Donald Trump‘s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles played preceding the exit of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary. But the media outlet’s attorney is warning the Trump… -
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
Politico corrects Susie Wiles-Katie Zacharia article after White House threatens ‘consequences’Politico corrected an article about White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles after the White House threatened it with unspecified “consequences” – but refused to change two more pieces and accused the Trump administration of retaliation. The… -
White House threatens Politico with 'consequences' if it doesn't retract Susie Wiles reportingThe White House is leveling "consequences" against Politico over its recent reporting on Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images) Politico has issued a correction and re-examined multiple articles… - Susie Wiles ‘offered positive reinforcement’ for press secretary’s Fox News interview ahead of her exitThe interview with Sean Hannity turned into a pointed examination of Zacharia’s credentials and her brief tenure. CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report, including its headline, mischaracterized the role White House chief of staff…
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The historic significance of the WWII-era globe damaged by Pete Hegseth's staffA WWII-era globe – one that once belonged to President Dwight Eisenhower – was damaged after an attempted relocation to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's office. TY SEIDULE: Hi, Juana. Thanks for having me on. SUMMERS: Thanks for being… -
Pete Hegseth’s staff break priceless historic globe he requested for officeHegseth’s aides, who attempted to move 30in fragile globe themselves, dropped it during relocation, army officials say A priceless pre-second world war globe coveted by the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth for his office in the Pentagon… -
Pete Hegseth has reportedly given DHS permission to test ‘heat ray’ for use at US-Mexico borderThe Pentagon’s Active Denial System shoots energy beam that causes ‘sensation of intense heat on surface of skin’ Pete Hegseth, the US secretary of defense, reportedly signed a memo last month permitting the Department of Homeland Security… -
Trump White House lashes out as 'legal freak-out' reveals Susie Wiles dramaWhite House chief of staff Susie Wiles attends a signing ceremony of an order on women's health, spearheaded by first lady Melania Trump, at the White House in Washington, DC, US, October 19, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Political… -
Politico Corrects Story On Susie Wiles After White House Threatens ‘Consequences’Mark K. Miller began covering the television industry in 1975 when he joined Broadcasting magazine as an editorial assistant, becoming a staff writer. He moved to editing, becoming managing editor of the renamed Broadcasting & Cable in… -
Why Sen. Thom Tillis wishes he voted against confirming Pete Hegseth | CNN PoliticsExpectations for the Democratic party in the November election are so high that one could envision a fair amount of disappointment in the party — and celebration among Republicans — if Democrats don’t shoot the moon on Election Day and… -
Trump cabinet official eyeing ‘next chapter’ after he ‘broke the world’: GOP strategistDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth may already be contemplating his next political move as a longtime Republican strategist predicts he could soon face President Donald Trump’s wrath over the monthlong Iran conflict. Mark McKinnon raised…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions